出口可能将显现透支效应（国金宏观孙永乐）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff changes on U.S.-China trade relations, highlighting a decline in U.S. import growth and the subsequent effects on China's exports, while also noting opportunities for China to benefit from exports to ASEAN and Africa before new tariffs take effect [3][4][5]. Group 1: U.S. Import Trends and China's Export Dynamics - U.S. import growth has shifted from 31% in March to -2.9% in June, indicating a move into a destocking phase [3]. - China's exports to the U.S. saw a decline, with a 44% drop in June, and a subsequent weakening in July, contributing to a 3.3 percentage point decrease in China's overall export growth [3][4]. - Despite the decline in U.S. imports from China, exports to ASEAN and Africa have surged, with U.S. imports from ASEAN maintaining a growth rate of around 30% from April to June [4][5]. Group 2: Export Opportunities in ASEAN and Africa - China's exports to Vietnam increased significantly, with machinery and electrical equipment seeing growth rates of 35.3% and 44.9% respectively from January to June [4]. - Exports to Africa also showed strong growth, with a 42.8% increase in July, contributing 1.9 percentage points to China's overall export growth [5]. - The article notes that the "export rush" to ASEAN and Africa may face challenges with the introduction of higher tariffs on August 8, which could pressure China's re-export trade [5]. Group 3: European Union Export Growth - China's exports to the EU grew by 9.2% in July, driven by improved economic conditions in the EU, which is China's second-largest export market [9][10]. - The increase in exports to the EU is attributed to China's competitive advantages in capital goods, with significant growth in exports of electrical machinery and vehicles [9][10]. - The EU's economic stability, with a GDP growth of 1.5% in Q2 2025, supports the resilience of Chinese exports to this region [10][11]. Group 4: Short-term Demand Challenges - The article highlights potential short-term demand declines, particularly from the U.S., which could negatively impact China's export performance [13][14]. - The effects of tariffs are expected to lead to a sharp decline in exports, with a notable drop from 9% in March to -21% in April for exports to the U.S. [14]. - The overall export share for China has increased to 16.4% among major sample countries, but the demand side pressures may limit further growth [13].