COFCO TECH(SZ:000930) 市值风云·2025-08-15 10:34Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by COFCO Technology (中粮科技) in the corn deep processing industry, highlighting issues such as industry overcapacity, slow transformation, and declining profitability due to market competition and low margins [1][6][14]. Financial Performance - COFCO Technology's revenue has fluctuated, with a peak of 234.69 billion in 2021, followed by a decline to 203.79 billion in 2023, and a projected revenue of 200.53 billion in 2024 [6][12]. - The company reported a net profit of 10.54 billion in 2021, but faced a loss of over 6 billion in 2023, indicating a significant downturn in financial performance [6][12]. - The gross margin dropped to 5.51% in 2023, reflecting the industry's low profitability and competitive pressures [14][23]. Industry Overview - The corn deep processing industry in China has an overcapacity of 1.2 billion tons, with an actual processing volume of approximately 76 million tons, resulting in an average operating rate of only 63% [7][14]. - COFCO Technology holds a 3.6% market share in the corn starch sector, producing 1.36 million tons, ranking ninth among competitors [7][9]. Business Segments - COFCO Technology operates three main business segments: 1. Alcohol and its by-products, contributing 49% of revenue in 2024 [11]. 2. Starch, starch sugars, and related products, also accounting for nearly half of the revenue [11]. 3. Biodegradable materials, which have not yet generated revenue [11][22]. Market Challenges - The alcohol industry faces severe overcapacity, with a domestic fuel ethanol production capacity of 587.5 million tons against a demand of only 376 million tons, leading to low operating rates [18][19]. - The company is exploring non-grain biomass fuel transitions, but faces challenges in scaling up production due to higher costs associated with cellulose ethanol [20][21]. Growth Opportunities - Potential growth areas include high-end alcohol products, functional sugars, and biodegradable materials, particularly PLA and PHA, which are derived from corn starch [24][25][30]. - The approval of alulose as a new food ingredient may provide a new revenue stream, as it is positioned as a healthier sugar alternative [3][24]. Transformation Efforts - COFCO Technology is attempting to shift its product structure to address market challenges, but the transformation process has been slow and fraught with difficulties [20][32]. - The company has made progress in developing cellulose ethanol and biodegradable materials, but large-scale production remains a challenge due to high costs and competition [21][30].