Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley warns that contrary to market expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, persistent service sector inflation may lead to a more hawkish stance from Chairman Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Market traders have locked in a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, driven by a weak July employment report and downward revisions of historical data [5][6]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that as long as inflation data does not show a catastrophic spike, a preventive rate cut is likely, leading to a "one-way street" towards a September cut [6][4]. Group 2: Service Sector Inflation Concerns - Morgan Stanley identifies service sector inflation as the real issue, overshadowing external factors like tariffs, with core CPI rising from 2.9% to 3.1% year-on-year in July [7][8]. - Service prices, excluding energy, increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while goods prices rose only 0.2%, indicating a more persistent inflationary trend driven by domestic factors [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell faces the challenge of managing market expectations without being cornered into a rate cut, as failing to cut rates could lead to significant market turmoil [9][10]. - The Fed's goal is to retain flexibility, especially before the complete release of employment and inflation data, to avoid being forced into a decision by market pricing [9][10]. Group 4: Implications for Future Policy - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be a critical moment for Powell to signal that inflation concerns are more pressing than employment issues, aiming to break the market's certainty about a rate cut [12]. - Investors should prepare for potential market corrections due to discrepancies in expectations, as Powell's message may emphasize patience until more data is available [12].
大摩预言:下周杰克逊霍尔央行年会上,鲍威尔会“放鹰”,抵制市场降息预期