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速递|诺和诺德,估值正被严重低估

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's stock price has significantly declined, leading to an attractive valuation with a price-to-earnings ratio below its long-term average, despite a downward revision in 2025 earnings expectations and slowing growth. The core products Ozempic and Wegovy continue to show strong sales performance and global expansion potential, making it a "strong buy" for long-term investors [2][7]. Valuation Context - The company has increased capital expenditures significantly, approximately four times previous levels, which has compressed free cash flow in the short term. This investment is primarily directed towards production facilities rather than technology sectors, similar to trends seen in tech giants like Meta and Amazon [3]. Product Demand and Supply Issues - There is a warning that the shortage of Ozempic will persist until the fourth quarter, particularly in the EU, while the U.S. market has sufficient supply. This shortage reflects high market demand, and if production can be accelerated, revenue growth potential could be substantial. Capital expenditures are expected to remain high in the coming years, potentially reaching double-digit percentages of sales [5][6]. Earnings Guidance Adjustment - The management has revised the 2025 fiscal year outlook, lowering sales growth expectations from 13%-21% to 8%-14% and operating profit growth from 16%-24% to 10%-16%. The primary reasons for this adjustment are the slower growth of core products Wegovy and Ozempic, with demand for Wegovy in the U.S. obesity market falling short of expectations [6]. Financial Performance - Despite the guidance being lowered, Novo Nordisk's quarterly performance remains robust, with net sales for the first half of 2025 reaching 154.944 billion Danish Krone, a 16.1% year-over-year increase. Operating profit was 72.240 billion Danish Krone, up 25.0%, and diluted earnings per share increased by 22.8% to 12.49 Danish Krone [7]. Long-term Investment Perspective - The decline in stock price has brought Novo Nordisk's valuation back to an attractive range. While short-term performance may be under pressure, the strength of core products, global expansion potential, and patent barriers remain solid. As capital expenditures transition into production capacity, long-term profitability is expected to improve, making it a noteworthy consideration for long-term investors [2][7].