Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股IPO·2025-08-20 04:29Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become the "most underweight" large-cap tech stock, with a S&P 500 weight of 7.37% but only 4.2% in institutional holdings, indicating a significant disparity reflecting cautious investor sentiment towards its soaring stock price and geopolitical risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Position in the Market - Despite being the highest-valued company globally and a leader in AI, Nvidia is the least favored large-cap tech stock among institutional investors [3]. - The gap between Nvidia's S&P 500 weight and its institutional holding percentage is 2.41 percentage points, the largest among 15 major tech companies tracked by Morgan Stanley [4]. - Nvidia's stock has surged nearly 1300% over the past five years, driven by the AI boom, but geopolitical and supply chain risks have made some investors cautious about increasing their positions [4]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Tech Stocks - Other large tech stocks like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon also show underweight positions, but to a lesser extent: Microsoft by 2.39 percentage points, Apple by 1.66 percentage points, and Amazon by 1.40 percentage points [5]. - In contrast, some tech stocks are in an overweight position, such as Intuit (0.83 percentage points overweight), Oracle (0.32 percentage points overweight), and Dell (0.25 percentage points overweight) [6]. Group 3: Future Performance and Fundamentals - Historically, underweight stocks tend to perform better over time as investors gradually increase their holdings to match index weights, indicating a statistically significant relationship between low active holdings and future stock performance [6]. - Despite the underweight position, Morgan Stanley analysts remain optimistic about Nvidia's fundamentals, citing strong indicators of demand for computing power and easing supply chain constraints [6]. - Nvidia's stock price has increased by 35% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 index, which rose by about 10%, primarily due to high demand for its GPUs used in AI and cloud applications [6]. Group 4: Market Valuation Concerns - Some analysts express skepticism about the optimistic outlook for large-cap stocks, suggesting that current valuations, including those of Nvidia and other top companies in the S&P 500, may not be sustainable, with P/E ratios exceeding those seen during the 1999 internet bubble [8].