万众瞩目的英伟达财报，三季度指引会低于预期吗？

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect Nvidia's Q3 performance guidance may fall short of market expectations due to significant uncertainties in the Chinese market, which could have contributed an incremental revenue of $2 billion to $3 billion [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates Nvidia's Q3 revenue to be $45.92 billion, with earnings per share of $1.01 [4]. - Despite the warning, Wall Street remains optimistic, with KeyBanc raising Nvidia's target price from $190 to $215 while maintaining a "buy" rating [8]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production - Nvidia's GPU supply and capacity are significantly improving, which is a core driver for its ongoing performance. GPU supply increased by 40% in the quarter ending July, with an expected further 20% increase by October due to the ramp-up of the B200 chip [6]. - The production efficiency of server racks is also improving, with the manufacturing yield of the GB200 racks nearing 85%. The forecast for GB200 rack shipments has been raised from 25,000 to 30,000 units for the year [7]. Group 3: Chinese Market Impact - KeyBanc's report indicates that Nvidia may temporarily exclude direct revenue from the Chinese market in its next fiscal guidance due to uncertainties surrounding semiconductor export licenses under U.S. restrictions [2].