Nvidia(US:NVDA) 美股IPO·2025-08-21 15:15Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised Nvidia's Q2 revenue forecast from $45.2 billion to $46.6 billion, exceeding Wall Street consensus expectations, driven by improving supply and demand dynamics, particularly in AI chip demand and Blackwell chip production capacity [1][3][6]. Group 1: AI Chip Demand Structure - The demand for Nvidia's products has shifted from "supply constraints" to "sustained growth," with major companies like Amazon, Google, and Meta indicating that even with increased data center investments, they cannot fully meet their computing needs, creating a solid foundation for Nvidia's revenue growth [8]. - Secondary cloud vendors and sovereign customers are emerging as significant demand sources, with companies like CoreWeave planning substantial capital expenditures, indicating a broader customer base for Nvidia [8]. Group 2: Blackwell Chip Production Capacity - The ramp-up of Blackwell chip production is a key variable affecting Nvidia's short-term performance, with ODM manufacturers expected to double their rack shipments within the year [10]. - Deutsche Bank reported that Blackwell chip revenue could reach $24 billion in Q1, nearly doubling from $11 billion in Q4 of the previous year, compensating for revenue losses due to issues in the Chinese market [10]. - The easing of back-end testing bottlenecks is also supporting capacity release, with significant increases in testing unit deliveries expected [10]. Group 3: Market Share and Competitive Position - Morgan Stanley projects Nvidia will maintain approximately 85% market share in 2026, significantly ahead of competitors like AMD, due to its hardware performance and over $5 billion annual R&D investment creating a robust software ecosystem [11]. - Companies that previously relied on ASICs, such as Google, are expected to increase spending on Nvidia by over three times this year, highlighting Nvidia's irreplaceable position in mainstream AI workloads [11]. Group 4: China Market Recovery - The market is closely watching Nvidia's ability to resume shipments to China, with Deutsche Bank estimating that if permissions are granted, Nvidia's Q3 revenue could increase by $50 billion [12]. - The approval for Nvidia to sell H20 chips to China could enhance earnings per share by 10%, even after accounting for a 15% licensing fee to the U.S. government [12].