Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad decline on Thursday, with the S&P 500 index falling for the fifth consecutive trading day as investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday [1][2] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.4% to close at 6370.17 points, while the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.34% to 21100.31 points and 0.34% to 44785.50 points, respectively [1][2] Federal Reserve Focus - The market's core focus is on Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where investors hope for new clues regarding future monetary policy, particularly interest rate adjustments [2][3] - Current expectations indicate a 74% probability of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool [2] Internal Fed Disagreements - The July FOMC meeting minutes revealed that most officials remain concerned about inflation and the labor market, suggesting that "it is still too early to cut rates" [3] - Notably, two current Fed governors opposed maintaining rates, marking the first time since 1993 that such dissent has occurred, indicating deepening divisions within the Fed [3] Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Market participants believe that if Powell's speech leans dovish and confirms a potential rate cut in September, it could alleviate market concerns and provide a boost [3] - Conversely, if Powell adopts a cautious or hawkish tone, it may trigger a new wave of selling, especially given the high stock valuations and the current low trading volume in August [3] Individual Stock Performance - Retail giant Walmart's stock fell over 4%, significantly impacting the market, despite the company exceeding sales expectations for Q2; however, its earnings per share fell short, marking the first quarterly earnings miss since May 2022 [4] - Walmart's performance highlights structural challenges in the retail sector, with rising costs and increased promotional efforts limiting profit margins [4] - The technology sector also faced significant pressure, with major stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, and Meta Platforms experiencing notable declines as investors took profits [4] Weekly Market Performance - As of Thursday, the S&P 500 index has dropped approximately 1.2% for the week, with the Nasdaq seeing a larger decline of about 2.4%, primarily due to the pullback in tech stocks [4] Nvidia Earnings Anticipation - Nvidia is set to release its latest earnings report next Wednesday, with market expectations for Q3 revenue of $45.92 billion and earnings per share of $1.01 [6] - The company has seen a 40% increase in GPU supply for the quarter ending in July, with expectations for a further 20% growth in supply by October [6] Future Fed Chair Speculation - A CNBC survey indicates that investors widely expect Kevin Hassett, Trump's former chief economic advisor, to likely become the next Fed Chair, although concerns about potential political influence on Fed independence have been raised [8] - The Fed is currently navigating a complex situation, balancing political pressure for rate cuts against strong employment and inflation indicators [8]
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