高盛交易台：现在是抄底“美股动量股”的时候，“除非下周英伟达财报暴雷”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs' high beta momentum stock indicator has dropped approximately 10 percentage points in the past five days, nearing its technical support level, which historically suggests a short-term rebound opportunity [1][3] - The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is critical in determining whether this rebound can materialize; if the report falls short of expectations, it may trigger a more prolonged sell-off [1][3] Summary by Sections Momentum Stocks Performance - Recently, momentum stocks in the U.S. have faced significant sell-offs, with Goldman Sachs reporting a 13% decline in its high beta momentum stock index from its peak on August 6 [5] - The decline has primarily occurred in the last five trading days, and Goldman Sachs traders believe this may present a buying opportunity [5] - Historical data indicates that when the momentum indicator drops over 10% in five days, the probability of a rebound in the following week is as high as 80% [5] Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on August 27 is viewed as a pivotal moment for the AI sector, with the potential to significantly influence market expectations [3][8] - As a major component of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices, Nvidia's performance holds substantial market weight [8] Market Challenges - Momentum stocks are facing broader macroeconomic and fundamental challenges, including high valuations and crowded positions [10] - The Nasdaq 100 index's expected P/E ratio has reached 27, significantly above its long-term average [10] - Concerns about the actual profitability of AI projects have been raised, with a report indicating that only 5% of generative AI pilot projects have achieved profitability [10]