Apple(US:AAPL) 贝塔投资智库·2025-08-22 04:00Core Viewpoint - The Apple supply chain is entering a significant upgrade cycle in 2025-2026, with attention on new model inventory, specification upgrades, and stock performance [1]. Group 1: New Model Inventory - The inventory for the iPhone 17 series in the second half of 2025 is slightly above 90 million units, remaining stable compared to last year's 90-95 million units [2]. - Market concerns about a year-on-year inventory decline of 5%-10% have eased due to reduced tariff pressures on Apple products [3]. - Key suppliers like Largan and Zhen Ding reported stable sales in July, confirming the trend of steady inventory [4]. Group 2: Specification Upgrades - The iPhone 17 series will introduce a "slim" version to replace the Plus model, featuring a titanium shell, a single rear camera, and increased use of flexible printed circuit boards (FPC) [10]. - The Pro series will see upgrades including a periscope lens and front camera enhancements to 48 million and 24 million pixels, respectively, along with a 50%+ increase in cover glass average selling price [10]. - Benefiting suppliers include Cowell (camera modules), Lens Tech (cover glass), Zhen Ding (PCB/FPC), Largan (lenses), and AAC (acoustics/thermal) [11]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Historically, supply chain stock prices tend to rise before new product launches and may retreat post-launch due to profit-taking; however, during upgrade cycles, stock prices recover more quickly [16]. - Since May, key suppliers' stock prices have averaged a 13% increase [16]. - The performance post-launch will be influenced by Apple's pricing strategy and consumer feedback, which will affect fourth-quarter demand and stock performance [17]. Group 4: Stock Recommendations - Lens Technology - H: Initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 26 HKD [19]. - Lens Technology - A: Initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a target price of 29 CNY [19]. - AAC Technologies: Upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of 57 HKD [19]. - BYD Electronics: Downgraded to "Neutral" with a target price of 42 HKD [19]. - Cowell: Rated "Buy" with a target price of 35 HKD [19]. - Zhen Ding Technology: Rated "Buy" with a target price of 185 TWD [19].