高盛交易员：现在，一切取决于9月的非农

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs indicates that if the non-farm employment growth in September is below 100,000, it will help determine the likelihood of a rate cut in September, with concerns about the labor market's downward risks highlighted by Powell [1][2][13] Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs expresses worries about future employment growth revisions leaning negative due to several factors, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [3][4] - The firm notes that the ADP data raises questions about healthcare sector employment growth, and household surveys may be overestimating immigration and job growth [4] Labor Market Outlook - The company is particularly concerned that the "catch-up hiring" in a few sectors seems to have ended, with employment growth outside these sectors nearing zero [5] - There is significant uncertainty regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, making the current average growth of 35,000 jobs concerning [6] Rate Cut Path - The path for rate cuts is heavily dependent on labor market performance, with the current window for observing significant slowdowns in employment data being now [7] - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the high level of market focus on the August non-farm data, given the scale of previous data revisions, which raises concerns [9] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The firm believes that regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing, there is a strong possibility that the rate cut cycle will conclude by mid-2026, coinciding with the next Federal Reserve chair's term [10][14] - The current yield curve in June 2026 is flat, providing a framework for future policy considerations [11]