高盛交易员：现在，一切取决于8月的非农

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key factor remains the upcoming non-farm employment data, which could provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the rate cut [1][10]. Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the outlook for employment growth is bleak, similar to the slowdown in economic activity this year, indicating that the slowdown in employment growth is not solely due to trade and immigration policy changes [2]. - There are significant uncertainties regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, while the three-month average growth is concerningly low at 35,000 jobs [3]. Rate Cut Pathway - The potential for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently high, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [4]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the market has moved past the most severe uncertainties regarding tariffs, and if the next two data releases show improvement, the current weakness may be a temporary fluctuation [5]. Data Revision Worries - The market's heightened focus on the August non-farm data is concerning, especially given the scale of previous data revisions [6]. - Several factors contribute to the negative bias in future employment growth revisions, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the rate cut cycle could conclude by the first half of 2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [8][9]. - The current yield curve indicates a flat state, providing a framework for future policy considerations [9]. Conclusion - Powell's statements have opened the door for a September rate cut, but the actual pace and trajectory of cuts will depend on the August employment data, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a cautious stance on the labor market due to multiple concerns [10][11].