英伟达再生变数？

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has notified key suppliers, including Anker and Samsung, to suspend production related to the H20 chip, potentially indicating a halt in sales to China, while still maintaining competitive pricing despite a 15% revenue tax to the U.S. government for sales in China [2][3]. Group 1: H20 Chip Analysis - The H20 chip has been a low-margin product for Nvidia, primarily due to design constraints imposed by U.S. regulations, which limited its performance capabilities [5][6]. - The H20 chip's theoretical performance is only 15% of the H100 chip, and its bill of materials (BOM) costs may be comparable or even higher than the H100 due to the need for higher memory specifications [6][7]. - Nvidia's decision to pause production may be a routine supply chain adjustment rather than a definitive end to H20 sales in China, as inventory and raw materials remain unconsumed [7]. Group 2: Upcoming B30A Chip - The B30A chip, based on the new Blackwell architecture, is expected to launch in the Chinese market, potentially offering competitive performance compared to previous models [8][9]. - Nvidia is in discussions with the U.S. government regarding the export of the B30A chip to China, which could influence its market reception [12]. - The B30A chip's specifications suggest it may exceed the performance of the H100, but uncertainties remain regarding its exportability to China [14]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The announcement of the B30A chip has led to a significant rise in shares of domestic GPU companies, contrasting with the decline seen when the H20 chip was first supplied [12][13]. - The release of the DeepSeek-V3.1 model has provided advantages for domestic GPUs, as they can better utilize the new model's parameters compared to Nvidia's chips [15].