“上半年强劲、下半年压制”！高盛总结英伟达股价规律，“年底前难以跑赢大盘”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious short-term outlook on Nvidia, predicting a potential "AI autumn" where the stock may struggle to outperform the market in the second half of the year despite a long-term positive growth outlook [2][3]. Group 1: Nvidia's Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock typically performs well in the first half of the year due to clear capital expenditure guidance from major clients like Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google, but tends to underperform in the second half due to a lack of new hard data catalysts [4][6]. - Historical data shows Nvidia's stock surged 149% in the first half of 2024 but only rose 12% in the second half, while in 2023, it increased by 189% in the first half and just 17% in the second half [9]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Stock Performance - Three key variables will influence Nvidia's stock performance until the end of 2025: comments from hyperscale computing clients during their Q3 earnings reports in October, clarity on the launch timing of the next-generation "Rubin" platform, and insights regarding Nvidia's business in China amid evolving U.S. export controls [6][8]. - The absence of substantial progress in these areas may lead to stock pressure due to a lack of catalysts [6]. Group 3: Outlook for Other AI-Related Semiconductor Companies - Broadcom is expected to exhibit similar trading dynamics to Nvidia in the second half of 2025, with new data from XPU clients and AI network business being crucial for stock performance [8]. - AMD's potential growth in data center GPUs for 2026 and the strength of PC and server CPUs are already reflected in its current stock price, with an upcoming investor day in November serving as a critical test for its revenue expectations [8]. - Marvell is anticipated to maintain a range-bound stock performance for the remainder of the year, with growth visibility from Amazon's custom computing business and Microsoft's business in the second half of 2026 being key drivers [8].