关系全市场的大问题！大摩预判：英伟达财报指引可能保守

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting focus of investors from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to the earnings outlook of U.S. companies, particularly Nvidia's upcoming Q2 earnings report, which is expected to impact the tech sector's confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings Outlook - Investors are optimistic about Nvidia's Q2 earnings, with some analysts predicting revenue could reach $55 billion for Q3, although Morgan Stanley warns that achieving this optimistic figure requires significant sales from China [2][7]. - Concerns regarding Nvidia's sales prospects in China have led to a more cautious approach from the company's management in their earnings guidance, which may be more conservative than market expectations [3][9]. - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the recent shift in market sentiment has moved from concerns about competition and operational challenges to a more optimistic outlook for Nvidia's revenue [6][10]. Group 2: China Market Impact - The uncertainty surrounding AI chip trade restrictions between the U.S. and China is a critical factor influencing Nvidia's business guidance, with management likely to adopt a conservative stance regarding the Chinese market [3][9]. - Despite the anticipated conservative guidance due to Chinese market factors, Morgan Stanley maintains a very optimistic long-term outlook for Nvidia, emphasizing the company's strong growth potential over the next 12 months [4][11]. - The report suggests that a cautious earnings guidance could actually create room for positive stock performance in the future, as it clarifies expectations for Nvidia's prospects [12][13]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Prospects - Morgan Stanley notes that even with high market expectations, the strong growth momentum anticipated over the next year supports a positive outlook for Nvidia's stock performance at current levels [14]. - The article highlights that understanding the factors affecting short-term guidance should not overshadow Nvidia's long-term growth potential, as both the U.S. and China have incentives to resolve chip access issues [12].