Semir(SZ:002563) 光大证券研究·2025-08-26 23:06Core Viewpoint - The company reported a 3.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, but a significant decline of 41.2% in net profit attributable to shareholders, indicating challenges in profitability despite stable revenue growth [4][9]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company achieved a revenue of 6.15 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 330 million yuan, reflecting a decline in profitability [4]. - Quarterly performance showed a revenue decrease of 1.9% in Q1 and an increase of 9% in Q2, while net profit dropped by 38.1% in Q1 and 46.3% in Q2 [4]. Channel Performance - Direct store revenue increased by 35% year-on-year, while online revenue remained flat and franchise revenue decreased by 3% [5]. - The revenue distribution was 44% online and 54% offline, with offline revenue growing by 4.9% [5]. - The total number of stores as of June 2025 was 8,236, a net decrease of 89 stores from the beginning of the year [5][6]. Margin and Cost Structure - Gross margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 46.7% in the first half of 2025, with children's clothing and leisure clothing margins at 48.2% and 43.2%, respectively [7]. - The expense ratio increased by 5.7 percentage points to 36.3%, driven by higher sales expenses due to the increased proportion of direct store sales [7]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory increased by 16.6% year-on-year to 3.33 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days at 187 days, an increase of 30 days [8]. - Accounts receivable rose by 14.6% year-on-year to 940 million yuan, with turnover days at 37 days, an increase of 4 days [8]. - Operating net cash flow was -280 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase in net outflow of 5004.4% [8]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in retail performance, with expectations for improved profitability as new store openings and operational efficiencies take effect [9]. - The company maintains an attractive dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 0.15 yuan per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 124% for the first half of 2025 [4][9].