“上半年强劲、下半年压制”！高盛总结英伟达股价规律，“年底前难以跑赢大盘”

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expresses a cautious tactical view on Nvidia, suggesting that while the long-term growth outlook remains positive, the stock may struggle to outperform the market in the second half of the year, entering an "AI autumn" phase [2][3][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock typically performs well in the first half of the year due to clear capital expenditure guidance from major clients, but tends to underperform in the second half due to a lack of new hard data catalysts [3][6]. - Historical data shows that Nvidia's stock surged by 149% in the first half of 2024, but only increased by 12% in the second half due to concerns over capital expenditure peaks and competition [8]. - Similarly, in 2023, Nvidia's stock rose by 189% in the first half following the AI narrative but only increased by 17% in the second half as investors questioned the sustainability of spending [8]. Group 2: Key Variables Influencing Future Performance - The stock's performance in the remainder of 2025 will depend on three key variables: comments from major clients during their Q3 earnings in October, clarity on the launch timing of Nvidia's next-generation "Rubin" platform, and insights regarding its business in China amid U.S. export controls [10]. - Without substantial progress on these fronts, Nvidia's stock may face pressure due to a lack of catalysts [10]. Group 3: Outlook for Other AI-Related Companies - Goldman Sachs anticipates that Broadcom will exhibit similar trading dynamics to Nvidia in the second half of 2025, with new customer data being crucial for stock performance [13]. - For AMD, the potential growth of its data center GPUs in 2026 and the strength of its PC and server CPUs are already reflected in current stock prices, with an upcoming investor day seen as a critical test for future revenue expectations [13]. - Marvell is expected to maintain a range-bound stock performance for the remainder of the year, with growth visibility from Amazon's custom computing and Microsoft's business in the second half of 2026 being key drivers [14].