BABA(US:BABA) 美股IPO·2025-08-28 04:59Core Viewpoint - Meituan's actual investment in food delivery and flash purchase exceeded predictions by 10 billion yuan, indicating more intense irrational competition than expected [1][2][3] - The core risk lies in Meituan's limited financial resources compared to Alibaba, potentially placing it at a disadvantage in a prolonged cash-burning battle [1][2][7] Financial Performance - Meituan's Q2 operating profit under Non-IFRS dropped 87% year-on-year to 1.84 billion yuan, significantly below Bloomberg's market consensus by over 80% [2][4] - Despite a 12% year-on-year revenue growth to 91.84 billion yuan, this figure also failed to meet expectations [2][4] - The core local commerce (CLC) segment is projected to incur "significant losses" in Q3, contrasting sharply with a profit of 14.6 billion yuan in the same period last year [2][5] Competitive Landscape - The core local commerce segment's operating profit fell 76% year-on-year, 70% lower than market expectations [3][5] - Meituan's unit economics (UE) for food delivery turned negative in Q2, recording -0.12 yuan, down from 1.9 yuan a year ago and 1.5 yuan in Q1 [5][6] - Meituan's market share in the broader food delivery and flash purchase market may have declined from 70% to over 50%, while Alibaba's share increased from 30% to over 40% [6][7] Strategic Response - Meituan's management aims to maintain its core advantage in the food-related order segment, claiming a 70% market share despite competitive pressures [6][7] - The intense price war began with Alibaba's announcement of a 50 billion yuan subsidy plan, prompting Meituan to respond with its own subsidy measures [6][7] - New business losses narrowed by 43% year-on-year to 1.9 billion yuan, better than market expectations, although restructuring costs and overseas expansion are expected to increase losses in Q3 to 2.3-2.4 billion yuan [7]