“重估”富途

Core Viewpoint - The strong growth prospects of Futu in terms of customer acquisition, asset management scale, revenue, and profit have not been fully reflected in its valuation, which is expected to narrow due to easing regulatory concerns and the development of digital asset business [1][2]. Summary by Sections Growth and Valuation Discrepancy - Futu's growth prospects and its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio are significantly disconnected, which is a core driver for valuation re-evaluation [4]. - Historically, there has been a strong correlation between Futu's customer asset management scale and its expected P/E ratio, with a peak P/E of 93 times during a period of high growth [4]. - Following regulatory tightening in Q4 2021, Futu's growth prospects sharply declined, leading to a drop in customer asset management scale growth to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 9% from 2022 to 2023 [5][6]. Recent Performance and Future Projections - Since 2024, Futu has seen a significant acceleration in customer acquisition and asset management scale, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 60%, yet its average expected P/E ratio remains at 14 times [7]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates a 43% year-on-year growth in customer asset management scale by 2025, suggesting that the current P/E ratios of 23 times and 20 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, are due for re-evaluation [8]. Drivers of Growth - Futu's growth recovery is supported by successful overseas expansion, with a focus on markets outside mainland China since 2021, achieving approximately 30% and 20% penetration rates in Hong Kong and Singapore, respectively, by Q2 2025 [9]. - The company is also enhancing its asset share per customer, with net asset inflows nearly doubling year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly outpacing the 40% growth rate in paid customers [10]. - Futu is actively pursuing opportunities in the digital asset space, implementing a comprehensive "R-A-C-E" strategy aimed at tokenizing real-world assets and applying for a virtual asset trading platform license [11]. Valuation Comparison with Peers - Futu's valuation discount compared to global peers is notable, with a projected P/E of 20 times for 2026, significantly lower than Robinhood's 52 times, Interactive Brokers' 29 times, and East Money's 32 times [14]. - Despite this, Futu demonstrates stronger competitive metrics, with the highest expected return on equity (ROE) and earnings per share (EPS) CAGR of 28% among its peers from 2024 to 2026 [14]. Regulatory Environment and Market Perception - The valuation disparity is primarily attributed to market concerns regarding regulatory risks associated with Futu's mainland operations, which have diminished over time [15]. - The contribution of mainland operations to Futu's paid customers and asset management scale has decreased from approximately 40% and 50% in 2021 to about 20% and 30% in the first half of 2025, respectively [16]. - Regulatory policies now allow continued service to existing customers, and the uncertainty surrounding regulations is significantly lower than in late 2021 to 2022, suggesting that the reasons supporting the valuation discount are fading [17].