Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-08-28 04:26Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs traders warn that investors should prepare for an upcoming "late summer headwind" affecting the U.S. stock market, driven by liquidity challenges and seasonal factors in September, despite the support from the Fed's dovish stance and volatility compression [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The fundamental conditions of the consumer and labor markets are described as "not ideal," with a risk of the employment market shifting from "no hiring, no layoffs" to direct deceleration, a risk not fully priced in by the market [2]. - The global sovereign debt yield increase is becoming an undeniable backdrop, with ongoing fiscal expansion raising the risk premium on long-term rates, compounded by over $180 billion in U.S. Treasury issuance this week, which will test market liquidity [3][8]. - Seasonal patterns indicate that market performance tends to deteriorate entering September, with liquidity concerns heightened by increased Treasury fund withdrawals at quarter-end [8]. Group 2: AI Sector and Technology Stocks - The AI trading theme, once a core driver of market gains, is showing signs of fatigue, with several key factors contributing to this pause in momentum [4]. - A paper from MIT highlighting that most AI projects fail to generate positive returns has gained unusual attention, alongside news of Meta slowing its hiring, which has negatively impacted market sentiment [5]. - Anticipated innovations like ChatGPT-5 have not met expectations, and comments from OpenAI's CEO regarding a "bubble" in the market have further dampened enthusiasm [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - A cautious stance on equities is recommended before September, with potential market pullbacks seen as buying opportunities for year-end [3]. - The consensus in the market is to bet on the Fed's dovish stance and to "short the dollar," although concerns regarding the political situation in France may pose short-term risks to this strategy [9][10]. - The Commodity Trading Advisors (CTA) hold long positions estimated at around $170 billion, nearing a $220 billion cap, which could lead to selling if volatility increases further [8].