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【2025年半年度报告点评/精锻科技】25H1业绩短期承压,人形机器人+出海打开增长空间

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst competitive pressures in the industry [3][10]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 987 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61 million yuan, down 35.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 45 million yuan, a decline of 40.63% [3]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 474 million yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter declines of 5.75% and 7.42%, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 20 million yuan, down 56.22% year-on-year and 49.20% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 6.1%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year. The gross profit margin was 24.52%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2025, the net profit margin was 4.30%, down 4.96 percentage points year-on-year and 3.54 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. Expense Ratios - The expense ratio for H1 2025 was 17.1%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year. The breakdown of expenses included sales (0.5%), management (7.9%), finance (2.3%), and R&D (6.3%), with varying year-on-year changes [5]. Segment Revenue - Revenue from gear shaft products was 725 million yuan, down 1.26% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 22.67%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points. Revenue from assembly products was 223 million yuan, down 3.84% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 24.49%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [6]. Global Expansion - The company is advancing its global footprint with the imminent production of its Thailand factory, which has completed initial sample deliveries and is expected to ramp up production in Q3 2025. Additionally, a new subsidiary has been established in Lyon, France, to enhance market penetration [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is making progress in the development of robotic reducers, with research and development activities starting in H2 2023 and sample products expected by November 2024. A joint venture with a well-known industrial robot brand was established in March 2025, and a 10% stake in a smart robotics company was acquired in June 2025 [8]. Dividend Distribution - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan per share (before tax), totaling 20.15 million yuan, which represents 33.25% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 [9]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to intense industry competition and a decline in performance, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 down to 189 million, 237 million, and 298 million yuan, respectively. Despite this, the company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating positive contributions from new projects and the Thailand factory [10].