BABA(US:BABA) 华尔街见闻·2025-08-30 09:01Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities believes Alibaba is making substantial investments in instant e-commerce and artificial intelligence to secure long-term growth and market dominance, despite short-term profit pressures [1][4]. Investment Strategy - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached 38 billion RMB this quarter, a 57% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 2.2 times increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The company anticipates that losses in the instant e-commerce segment could peak at approximately 22 billion RMB in the upcoming quarter [2][7]. - The newly established China E-commerce Group (CEG) experienced a decline in adjusted profit by 21% year-on-year, amounting to a decrease of 10 billion RMB due to these investments [6][3]. Short-term Impact - The significant investments have led to a substantial erosion of short-term profits, with CEG's EBITDA dropping by 10 billion RMB in just one quarter [3][6]. - Despite the losses, initial returns are promising, with instant e-commerce contributing to a 25% increase in monthly active buyers for the core e-commerce platform, Taobao [3][12]. Market Positioning - Alibaba's daily order volume in instant e-commerce reached 80 million, significantly narrowing the gap with market leader Meituan, which is estimated to exceed 90 million orders [10]. - The order structure is improving, with less than 30% of orders related to low-price promotions, indicating a healthier order mix [11]. Long-term Vision - Alibaba aims for its instant e-commerce business to contribute approximately 1 trillion RMB in GMV by 2028, representing a 10% increase in its current e-commerce scale [17]. - The management expects to reduce losses per order by 50% within the next two months through operational efficiency and economies of scale [17]. AI and Cloud Business - The strong demand for AI has led to a significant increase in Alibaba Cloud's capital expenditure, which reached 38 billion RMB this quarter, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth [8][18]. - Management expresses optimism about continued acceleration in cloud revenue growth, supported by the substantial capital investments [18]. Conclusion - Alibaba is strategically using its profit losses to signal its commitment to transformation, with the potential for significant long-term growth if the investments in instant e-commerce and AI succeed [19][20].