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新泉股份 | 2025Q2:业绩短期承压 剑指全球内外饰龙头【民生汽车 崔琰团队】

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid revenue growth in H1 2025, with a revenue of 7.46 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.3% [2] Group 1: Q2 Performance and Drivers - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.94 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year and 12.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.0% [3] - Key drivers for revenue growth include increased sales from domestic major clients such as Chery, Geely, and SAIC, as well as successful overseas production in Mexico and the U.S., which generated revenues of 960 million yuan and 10 million yuan respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 196.0% and 21.3% [3] - The company also expanded its footprint by acquiring 70% of Anhui Ruiqi, entering the automotive seat sector, and enhancing its overseas production capabilities [3] Group 2: Product and Customer Expansion - The company is actively expanding its customer base by entering the Tesla supply chain and securing contracts with new energy vehicle brands such as Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, which is expected to drive significant growth [3] - Product diversification is evident as the company expands from interior components to exterior parts and complete seat assemblies, with the potential for single vehicle component value exceeding 10,000 yuan [3] - The global automotive industry's cost-cutting pressures are accelerating the shift from imported interior and exterior components, positioning the company to capture market share through its competitive pricing and responsiveness [3] Group 3: Global Strategy and Capacity Expansion - The company is pursuing a global strategy by establishing new production bases, including a new exterior parts facility in Changzhou and a joint venture in Slovakia, to meet the needs of existing and potential clients [4] - By November 2023, the company announced further investments in its Slovakian facility, expanding its production capacity across Southeast Asia, North America, and Europe [4] - The company aims to enhance its international presence and operational efficiency through these strategic expansions [4] Group 4: Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 17.07 billion yuan, 20.32 billion yuan, and 23.97 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.206 billion yuan, 1.537 billion yuan, and 1.858 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.47 yuan, 3.15 yuan, and 3.81 yuan for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios decreasing from 20 to 13 [6][7]