SWHY(SZ:000166) 申万宏源宏观·2025-08-31 16:05Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after 2020, the fiscal policies of the US, Europe, and Japan have shifted towards proactive expansion, marking a new era of fiscal activism that directly influences their economic strength and stability [1][6][64] - The fiscal policies of developed economies are no longer limited to being passive stabilizers; they are now actively guiding economic development, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and defense [1][6][64] - The tolerance for high deficits has increased among Western countries, with the US political parties showing a narrowing gap in their attitudes towards fiscal deficits, and Japan delaying its budget surplus targets [1][6][15] Group 2 - The correlation between fiscal deficit rates and GDP growth rates has been established, indicating that higher deficits lead to higher GDP growth. The US has benefited the most from this trend, with its GDP growth outpacing that of the EU by 4 percentage points from 2019 to 2023 due to stronger fiscal stimulus [2][20][64] - The US is expected to extend and expand tax cuts and defense spending through the "Inflation Reduction Act," with an anticipated deficit rate of around 7% next year [3][25][34] - Europe is shifting towards a more expansionary fiscal stance, increasing defense, infrastructure, and clean energy spending, with Germany establishing a special fund of €500 billion to support these initiatives [3][34][38] Group 3 - The expected economic growth rates for the US, Europe, and Japan in the coming year are projected to be 2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.5% respectively, with the US maintaining a lead in growth due to its fiscal policies [4][56][64] - Germany is expected to see a significant improvement in its GDP growth rate, projected to increase by 0.9% in 2026, driven by its relaxed fiscal stance and increased defense and infrastructure spending [4][56][64] - The fiscal multiplier effects are anticipated to be strongest in the US, with a projected impact of 0.6% on GDP growth, while the effects in Europe and Japan are expected to be weaker at 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [4][52][56]