博通恐难再上涨

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) has a unique growth and profitability profile, but analysts are cautious about entering before the earnings report on September 4, despite expectations of beating market forecasts [1][11]. Financial Performance - Over the past 12 quarters, Broadcom's earnings per share have never fallen below expectations, with only one instance of revenue missing forecasts by $6.7 million, while the sales for Q4 FY2024 are projected to reach $14 billion [2]. - The management's positive guidance during the last earnings call reflects confidence in maintaining strong growth, bolstered by the momentum in artificial intelligence [4]. Market Sentiment and Comparisons - Despite strong performance from AI-related companies like NVIDIA, which reported a 56% increase in data center revenue to over $40 billion, market reactions have been tepid, indicating a potential risk for Broadcom's post-earnings rebound [4][11]. - Analysts are cautious about Broadcom's potential for a rebound after earnings due to deteriorating sentiment around AI and high valuation ratios [11]. Valuation Metrics - Analysts project strong double-digit revenue growth for Broadcom over the next five years, with expected revenue of $62.838 billion in FY2025, growing to $127.34 billion by FY2029 [8]. - The forward price-to-sales ratio is estimated at 22.26, with a projected price-to-earnings ratio reaching around 45, indicating that even with aggressive earnings growth forecasts, valuations remain high [9][10]. - Broadcom's current market capitalization is approximately $1.4 trillion, but analysts suggest limited upside potential given the already high valuation ratios [10][11].