SWHY(SZ:000166) 赵伟宏观探索·2025-09-01 16:05Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that after 2020, the fiscal policies of the US, Europe, and Japan have shifted towards proactive expansion, marking a new era of fiscal activism that directly influences their economic strength and stability [1][6][64] - The fiscal policies of developed economies are no longer limited to being passive stabilizers; they are now actively guiding economic development, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and defense [1][6][64] - The tolerance for high deficits is increasing among Western countries, with the US political parties showing a narrowing gap in their attitudes towards fiscal deficits, and Japan delaying its budget surplus targets [1][6][15] Group 2 - The correlation between fiscal deficit rates and GDP growth rates has been positive from 2019 to 2025, indicating that higher deficits lead to higher GDP growth, with the US benefiting the most from this trend [2][20] - The US is expected to expand its fiscal spending significantly through the "Inflation Reduction Act," which includes tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially raising its deficit rate to around 7% [3][25][34] - Europe is also shifting towards a more expansionary fiscal stance, with Germany loosening its debt brake rules and establishing a special fund of €500 billion for direct investments and climate transition [3][34][38] Group 3 - The expected economic growth rates for 2026 are projected to be 2.0% for the US, 1.2% for the Eurozone, and 0.5% for Japan, with the US maintaining a lead in growth due to its fiscal policies [4][56] - Germany is anticipated to see a significant improvement in its GDP growth rate, potentially reaching 0.9% in 2026, driven by increased defense and infrastructure spending [4][56] - The fiscal stimulus effects are expected to be 0.6% for the US, 0.2% for the Eurozone, and only 0.1% for Japan, indicating varying levels of fiscal impact across these regions [4][52][56]