花旗：iPhone 17很难引爆苹果换机潮，明年的“三驾马车”才是关键

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that the iPhone 17 series represents a gradual update, with expected shipments of 82 million units in 2025, a slight increase from 81 million units for the iPhone 16. The real growth catalysts will be the advanced Siri, foldable phones, and Vision Pro 2 in 2026, which are expected to drive a stronger replacement cycle and become key growth drivers for Apple. Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Apple with a target price of $245 [1][6]. iPhone 17 Series Overview - The iPhone 17 series is anticipated to be a gradual update, with the new iPhone 17 Air model being the most significant change, expected to be the thinnest and lightest iPhone to date, replacing the Plus model. Other notable upgrades include a new 3nm chip, 12GB RAM, camera enhancements, and a potential price increase of $50 for Pro models [7][8]. - Citigroup's supply chain research shows that the expected unit shipments for the iPhone 17 series in 2025 will be 82 million units, reflecting only a marginal increase compared to the iPhone 16 [5][10]. Market Dynamics and Consumer Insights - Nearly half of iPhone users are still using the iPhone 14 or earlier models, providing an opportunity for upgrades. However, the gradual upgrade of the iPhone 17 is unlikely to stimulate a large-scale replacement cycle [6][11]. - Citigroup's consumer electronics survey indicates that the smartphone replacement cycle expectations are similar to last year, but purchase intentions have decreased compared to the past year and the previous 12 months [11]. Future Growth Catalysts - The true growth for Apple is expected to come from the launch of advanced Siri, foldable phones, and Vision Pro 2 in 2026, which are seen as key catalysts for a stronger replacement cycle [12][15]. - In the AI strategy, Apple is exploring partnerships with other major language model providers while continuing to develop its own foundational models and significantly increasing AI investments and capital expenditures [13][14].