Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the biggest risk to the US economy remains "quasi-stagflation," driven by the dual impact of tariffs and immigration policies, which suppress both demand and supply in the short term and may lead to structural inflation in the medium term [1][2] - Recent data indicates that the US is entering a "high tariff, high interest rate" era, with tariffs on imports from India raised to 50% and tariff revenues expected to exceed $300 billion this year, potentially contributing around $4 trillion in the future [4][6][10] - The tightening of immigration policies is leading to a decline in labor supply, which is expected to pressure economic expansion and reduce consumer demand, with estimates suggesting a potential GDP growth decline of 0.81 percentage points by 2025 [10][11] Group 2 - Recent economic and financial data show characteristics of "quasi-stagflation," including a divergence between consumer confidence and inflation expectations, with consumer confidence declining while inflation expectations rise [12][13] - Manufacturing costs are increasing while investment willingness remains low, indicating a combination of rising costs and subdued investment, which aligns with "quasi-stagflation" characteristics [18][20] - Bond market signals indicate rising implied inflation expectations alongside declining real interest rates, suggesting that investors are anticipating lower real returns while seeking higher inflation compensation [22][24] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve may lean towards interest rate cuts in response to rising employment pressures, but the persistence of inflation may complicate this process, leading to a more gradual and less significant reduction than the market anticipates [25][26] - Historical examples of "stagflation" highlight that it is not merely a cyclical phenomenon but results from a combination of policy, structural, and market expectations, with current US challenges including high fiscal deficits, elevated tariffs, and tightening immigration policies [26]
中金：美国最大风险仍是“类滞胀”