Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股IPO·2025-09-04 23:25Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is compromised, a small shift of U.S. Treasury holdings into gold could drive gold prices to nearly $5,000 per ounce. The baseline forecast predicts gold will reach $4,000 by mid-2026, with tail risk scenarios suggesting $4,500, and extreme cases approaching $5,000 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Predictions - Goldman Sachs outlines three scenarios for gold prices: a baseline of $4,000 by mid-2026, a tail risk scenario of $4,500, and an extreme case where just 1% of private U.S. Treasury holdings flow into gold, potentially pushing prices near $5,000 [6][7][9]. - The report highlights that gold has become one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, with a price increase of over 30% and reaching historical highs recently [3][6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The report attributes the rise in gold prices to several factors, including central bank purchases, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased control exerted by former President Trump over the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, particularly in light of Trump's attempts to exert influence, which could lead to inflationary pressures and a decline in the attractiveness of traditional financial assets [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish recommendation for gold as a commodity, emphasizing its role as a value storage tool that does not rely on institutional trust, especially in times of uncertainty regarding central bank independence [6][7].