Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-09-05 10:27Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts the world is entering a "Commodity Control Cycle" due to stagnation in globalization and inward-looking policies by various countries [1][2] Group 1: Traditional Investment Portfolio Vulnerabilities - Traditional stock and bond portfolios are particularly vulnerable in two stagflation scenarios, diminishing their diversification benefits [3] - The first scenario is "Institutional Credibility Erosion Stagflation," where doubts about central banks' ability to control inflation lead to declines in both stocks and bonds, making gold a standout asset [4] - The second scenario is "Supply Shock Stagflation," where external supply disruptions cause economic slowdowns and rising prices, making commodities the few assets that can provide positive real returns [5][6] Group 2: The Four-Step Cycle of Commodity Control - The cycle begins with "Insulation," where governments use tariffs, subsidies, and strategic reserves to secure domestic supply chains [8] - The second step is "Expansion," where once domestic supply is secured, excess production is exported, with OPEC+ and U.S. LNG exports gaining market influence [8][9] - The third step is "Concentration," where global price declines lead to high-cost producers exiting the market, concentrating supply among a few low-cost giants [9] - The final step is "Leverage," where dominant producers use export restrictions as geopolitical and economic leverage, increasing market disruption risks [10] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Concentration - The concentration of commodity supply heightens geopolitical risks, as evidenced by historical cases like the 1973 oil embargo and Russia's gas supply cuts to Europe [11][14] - Key maritime chokepoints further exacerbate supply chain vulnerabilities, with diminishing naval protection increasing geopolitical risks for commodity flows [14] Group 4: Strategic Value of Commodities for Investors - The report emphasizes the strategic value of commodities in investment portfolios amid a fragmented and vulnerable supply chain world [15] - Not all commodities provide the same hedging effectiveness, which depends on their direct or indirect weight in the inflation basket and the likelihood of supply disruptions [15][16] - As the world officially enters the "Commodity Control Cycle," incorporating a broad range of commodities into investment portfolios is a long-term strategic decision to mitigate future inflation and geopolitical risks [17]