Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 华尔街见闻·2025-09-05 10:27Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with the upcoming August non-farm payroll report expected to reveal the true pace of economic slowdown, influencing the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions [1][12]. Market Expectations: Growth Slowdown and Rising Unemployment - Economists predict an addition of 75,000 non-farm jobs in August, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% in July [2][5]. - Average hourly earnings are anticipated to grow by 0.3% month-over-month, with year-over-year growth slowing from 3.9% to 3.8% [2]. Employment Data and Revisions - The July non-farm payroll report was weak, with only 73,000 jobs added and significant downward revisions to previous months, indicating a more severe labor market cooling than initially thought [3][5]. - Investors will closely monitor revisions to previous months' data, as July's report had a substantial downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs for May and June [1][5]. Special Considerations for August Data - Historical trends show that initial August non-farm payroll figures are often weak but later revised upwards, with 10 out of the last 15 years seeing lower-than-expected job growth [5]. - Government policies, including hiring freezes and layoffs, are expected to negatively impact federal employment numbers, with Goldman Sachs forecasting a decrease of 20,000 jobs in August [5]. Leading Indicators and Economic Sentiment - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims have risen, indicating a potential softening in the labor market [6]. - The ADP report showed only a 54,000 increase in private sector jobs, significantly below the previous month's figure [7]. - The Challenger report indicated a drop in hiring intentions and a surge in layoffs, reaching the lowest level since 2009 [8]. - The JOLTS report revealed that for the first time since April 2021, the number of unemployed exceeded job openings, signaling a demand-constrained labor market [9]. - Consumer confidence regarding job availability has declined, with fewer consumers believing jobs are plentiful [10]. Potential Impact of Benchmark Revisions - The upcoming benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics could adjust total employment numbers down by 500,000 to 1 million, suggesting that previous monthly job additions may have been overestimated [11]. - Such revisions could serve as a catalyst for the Federal Reserve to take decisive action, even if the August report is mediocre [11]. Threshold for Rate Cuts - For a 50 basis point rate cut to be considered, non-farm payrolls would need to fall below 40,000, and the unemployment rate would need to reach or exceed 4.4% [12]. - A significantly strong report could lead to a pause in rate cuts, particularly if combined with hot inflation data [12]. Market Pricing and Reactions - Options market data indicates a low expected volatility of around 0.70% for the S&P 500 on the report release day, reflecting a calm market sentiment [14]. - A detailed scenario analysis suggests varying impacts on the S&P 500 based on different employment outcomes, with a range of potential index movements depending on job growth figures [15]. Preferred Outcomes - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that a "not too good, not too bad" report would be the most favorable outcome for risk assets, supporting the expectation of a September rate cut without alarming the market [17].