Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong performance over the past year, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 44.6% since the low point in September 2024, outperforming other markets and asset classes [3][4][7]. Market Performance Overview - The A-share market has experienced a significant increase in daily trading volume, rising from less than 500 billion yuan in September 2024 to around 3 trillion yuan recently, indicating a shift in investor risk appetite [3]. - The technology growth style has performed particularly well, with the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index showing cumulative gains of 95.9% and 92.9%, respectively [3][4]. Phases of Market Movement 1. Initial Phase of Market Rally (Late September to Early October 2024): - The market began to rally following a series of pro-growth policies announced in late September, including interest rate cuts and support for the stock market [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 27% in just six trading days, with the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 gaining 66.6% and 59.2%, respectively [3][4]. 2. Consolidation Phase (October 2024 to March 2025): - After reaching a peak in October, the market entered a consolidation phase with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating within a 200-point range [4]. - The focus shifted from macroeconomic policies to industry trends, with technology and AI sectors gaining attention [5]. 3. Adjustment Phase Due to External Risks (March to Early April 2025): - External uncertainties led to a market pullback, particularly in the technology sector, but intervention from state-owned funds and monetary policy support helped stabilize the market [6]. 4. Recovery Phase (Mid-April 2025 to Present): - The market has entered a steady upward phase, supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, AI, and non-bank financials have shown strong performance during this phase [6]. Driving Factors - The primary driver of the A-share market's performance has been a decline in risk premiums, with capital inflows and the resulting profit effects being secondary outcomes [7][8]. - The restructuring of the global monetary order and the strengthening of China's innovation capabilities are seen as significant underlying factors for the current bull market [8]. Future Outlook - While short-term volatility risks remain, the medium-term upward trend of the index is expected to continue, supported by ongoing structural policies and the potential for further asset revaluation in China [9]. - Key sectors to watch include technology, manufacturing, and financial services, with a focus on companies with solid industry fundamentals [10].
中金 | “9.24”至今行情回顾：何为上涨主线？