Apple(US:AAPL) Counterpoint Research·2025-09-11 01:03Core Viewpoint - Counterpoint Research highlights the upcoming Apple 'Awe Dropping' Event, focusing on product adjustments and market performance, particularly in the smartphone and wearable segments [5][8]. iPhone - Apple plans to adjust its product lineup with the new iPhone series, featuring design changes in the Pro models, an upgrade to the A19 chip, and a 24 million pixel front camera. The non-Pro series will introduce a 120Hz display for the first time [8]. - The new iPhone 17 Air is expected to replace the iPhone 16 Plus, aiming for a lighter design and potentially a single camera setup, with sales performance anticipated to match that of the 16 Plus [8]. - iPhone shipments are projected to grow by 5% year-on-year by 2025, with Apple maintaining a 62% market share in the high-end segment, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [8]. Apple Watch & AirPods - After seven consecutive quarters of decline, Apple Watch shipments are expected to return to growth by Q3 2025, with the launch of the 10th anniversary Apple Watch Series 11, Watch Ultra 3, and AirPods Pro 3, emphasizing enhanced health features [8]. - A new Watch SE 3 may also be introduced to attract price-sensitive consumers, further expanding the user base [8]. Market Performance - In Q2 2025, Apple's shipment volume in China grew by 1% year-on-year, driven by significant price reductions on the iPhone 16 series, which also impacted Huawei's market share in the high-end segment [9]. - Globally, Apple held a 17% market share with an 11% year-on-year growth, ranking first among the top five brands, supported by strong demand for the iPhone 16 and preemptive shipments in North America ahead of expected tariffs [11]. - In Q1 2025, Apple's global revenue increased by 5% to $95.3 billion, driven by hardware (up 3%) and services (up 12%), marking the fourth consecutive quarter of synchronized growth in both categories [13]. Regional Insights - In Q1 2025, Apple's smartphone shipments grew by 12% year-on-year, the highest among the top five brands, fueled by strong performance in North America, Japan, and India, along with the release of the iPhone 16e [16]. - In India, Apple saw a 29% year-on-year increase in shipments, supported by deeper penetration into second and third-tier cities and local manufacturing and R&D investments [21]. - North American shipments rose by 21% year-on-year, with the iPhone 16e enhancing mid-tier appeal and helping Apple maintain momentum despite tariff concerns [21].