Qualcomm(US:QCOM) 美股研究社·2025-09-11 07:56Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm's low price-to-earnings ratio of 15-16 times is unusual given the booming AI sector and high valuations in the tech industry, where some companies reach up to 100 times [1][2]. Group 1: Customer Dependency and Risks - Apple's plan to develop its own chips to replace Qualcomm's is a significant risk, as the contract for modem supply will expire in 2027, potentially leading to a major revenue impact for Qualcomm [3]. - The loss of Apple could set a precedent for other clients, such as Samsung, to also move towards self-developed chips, further threatening Qualcomm's business [3]. - Qualcomm's current market valuation of $172 billion and low earnings projections for 2025 indicate a challenging outlook, with expected revenues of $43 billion and profits of $11.5 billion [3]. Group 2: Diversification Strategy - Under CEO Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm is pursuing a diversification strategy to reduce reliance on the smartphone market by targeting three new markets: automotive, IoT, and laptops [4]. - The automotive market is projected to grow over 20% annually, with Qualcomm signing contracts with major manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes-Benz [4]. - The IoT sector is also experiencing double-digit growth, focusing on specialized chips for various devices, including VR/AR and smart home systems [4]. Group 3: Market Challenges - Qualcomm's focus on consumer markets may hinder its ability to capitalize on the booming data center investments by major tech companies, which are pouring billions into this area [5]. - The competition in the laptop market is fierce, and the automotive market, while promising, is significantly smaller than the smartphone market, making it difficult to offset potential losses from Apple [5][10]. - The company faces a fundamental technological barrier in developing autonomous AI devices, as current chips cannot support the memory requirements needed for advanced AI applications [10]. Group 4: Financial Outlook - Qualcomm is currently a high-quality, profitable company with substantial cash flow from its smartphone chip business, despite potential customer losses [11]. - However, the company lacks strong growth drivers, and its market position is threatened by stagnation in its core market and increasing competition [12][13]. - Analysts suggest holding the stock due to its low P/E ratio, which reflects existing risks and the absence of rapid growth prospects [13]. Group 5: Future Potential - There is a possibility for Qualcomm to avoid a downturn if Apple fails to develop a competitive chip, as Qualcomm's performance could still outshine competitors [14].