UBS(US:UBS) 美股研究社·2025-09-11 07:56Core Insights - UBS's latest report identifies five key long-term investment themes as the most attractive entry points, emphasizing the importance of understanding both "what to invest in" and "why to invest now" [5][6]. Group 1: Key Long-term Investment Themes - The five long-term investment themes identified are: 1. Digital Consumers 2. Diversity and Equality 3. Enabling Technologies 4. Fintech 5. Identifying the Next Frontier [6][8]. - "Identifying the Next Frontier" is a new entry into the top five, while "Fintech" has improved from fifth place [6]. Group 2: Investment Logic and Rationale - Digital Consumers: The younger generation, particularly Gen Z, is reshaping consumption patterns, focusing on shared experiences rather than ownership. AI plays a crucial role in this transformation, making it a top investment theme due to strong quality metrics and robust balance sheets [8]. - Diversity and Equality: Regulatory pressures and economic incentives are driving companies to enhance diversity, which is expected to contribute to GDP growth over the next decade. This theme is characterized by reasonable valuations and strong quality scores [10]. - Enabling Technologies: The integration of AI and other technologies is projected to create a market worth $2.6 trillion by 2030, with significant growth driven by sectors like AI, AR/VR, and 5G [11]. - Fintech: The sector is expected to grow from $310 billion in 2024 to $580 billion by 2030, driven by urbanization, demand from younger demographics, and supportive policies [12]. - Identifying the Next Frontier: Emerging markets are anticipated to be the main drivers of global GDP growth, with favorable demographics and productivity advantages [13]. Group 3: Short-term Cautions - Genetic Therapies and Healthtech: These themes are currently ranked low due to a lack of positive short-term catalysts and face significant capital constraints. Investors are advised to avoid these areas for the time being [15]. - Smart Mobility: This theme has shown improvement in valuation and momentum, making it a potential area for renewed interest [16]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Trends - Three irreversible trends are highlighted: 1. Population growth, with projections indicating an increase from 8.1 billion in 2024 to over 10 billion by 2100, primarily in low- and middle-income countries [19]. 2. Urbanization, with the urban population expected to rise from 55% in 2018 to 68% by 2050 [19]. 3. Aging population, with a significant increase in the proportion of individuals aged 65 and older, particularly in developed countries [19]. Group 5: Recommendations for Investors - Diversification across multiple themes is recommended to mitigate risks [26]. - A long-term investment approach is encouraged, focusing on core drivers like AI and emerging market growth [26]. - Investors should remain vigilant about risks and consider consulting professionals if unfamiliar with specific themes [26].