星巴克中国出售案进入决赛圈｜大并购

Core Viewpoint - The bidding for Starbucks' China business has narrowed down to four private equity firms: Boyu Capital, Carlyle Group, EQT, and Sequoia China, with a final buyer expected to be determined by the end of October [2][3]. Group 1: Bidding Process and Valuation - The overall valuation of Starbucks China is approximately $5 billion, corresponding to an estimated EBITDA of $400 million to $500 million for 2025, resulting in a valuation multiple of around 10 times [3]. - The bidding process has attracted over ten institutions since the announcement of the potential sale in late 2024, with various rumors circulating about the final buyer and price [3][15]. - Starbucks has indicated it will not sell the entire business but will retain core assets and a certain equity stake, which may affect the bidding prices due to the lack of complete control for the buyers [16]. Group 2: Profiles of Bidding Firms - Carlyle Group is a notable contender due to its previous investment experience in McDonald's China, where it achieved a significant return on investment [4][5]. - Boyu Capital has been a key player in mergers and acquisitions, with recent high-profile transactions indicating its growing capacity for large-scale deals [6][8]. - EQT, while less known in China, has a strong track record of exits through mergers rather than traditional IPOs, suggesting a strategic approach to acquisitions [9][10]. - Sequoia China has been increasingly active in M&A, with substantial fundraising efforts indicating its readiness to engage in significant transactions [11][12]. Group 3: Market Context and Strategic Implications - The past year has seen Starbucks China under intense scrutiny as a major case in the M&A landscape, with various private equity firms vying for a stake [13][14]. - The fluctuating market valuation of Starbucks China reflects differing opinions on its long-term growth potential amid competition from local brands [15]. - The strategic decision to maintain a portion of ownership suggests that Starbucks aims to retain influence over its brand while still attracting investment [16][17].