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红杉种子投资的新公司,要做AI版LinkedIn
暗涌Waves· 2025-09-22 02:04
「 AI能把人与人连接起来吗? 」 文 | 施嘉翔 编辑 | 陈之琰 「暗涌Waves」获悉,AI初创公司指数引力已于年初完成pre-A轮融资, 由红杉中国种子基金和阿尔法公社联合领投。 指数引力创始人于北川是抖音早期核心成员,历经抖音从几千万用户到6个亿的日活全过程,负责抖音早期社交关系的构建。 2022年年初,于北川选择创业。这场创业的开始是一家海外电商公司。于北川卖过穿戴甲、吸尘器,还有仅售20美元的无人机。 2023年5月,他们因TikTok店铺关闭导致资金链断裂,不得不停发了当时所有团队同事的工资,同时积极寻找各种变现机会,期间 甚至还卖过流量电商的课程——直到2024年创立AI营销公司指数引力。 时间转至今年年初,Manus还没有引爆Agent市场,于北川在朋友圈用文档招人,并回顾创业经历,发动字节和抖音的前同事做宣 推。出乎意料的是,这条朋友圈吸引来了红杉种子。红杉认可了他们未来的可拓展性,就这样顺势完成了新一轮融资。 「暗涌」: 新产品预想的用户是谁? 如今的指数引力是一家围绕全球短视频达⼈营销赛道的公司,为国内外卖家群体提供营销数字化平台。目前,公司与多家AI初创公 司达成合作,单月收入约几 ...
对话泰国首家独角兽创始人:从孤儿到30亿美元CEO的逆天改命
暗涌Waves· 2025-09-18 01:34
「 风暴越猛烈,闪电越强大。 」 文 | 任倩 编辑 | 陈之琰 高速公路上,善迪打开车窗抛洒钞票,只为打动技术 合伙人 一起创业; 酒店发布会中,不惜下跪才拿到与中国物流公司合作机会的善迪突然得知被剥夺了 CEO 身份,大闹一场也只能 眼睁睁看着自己的股份从19%稀释到1.9%; 暴雨下的泰国街头,亲自驾驶卡车的善迪被撞昏迷,成群的黄色摩托赶来支援,用塑料袋包好散落一地的包裹紧 急送往机场; 晴空万里的一天,善迪下班发现有人把一颗子弹放在车子引擎盖上,还留一张纸条"你的性命只值一颗子弹"...... 这是泰剧《疯狂独角兽》里的经典名场面,也是故事原型人物——泰国华裔企业家、Flash Express(闪电 达)创始人李发顺的真实人生。 简述李发顺的成长轨迹就像在阅读一部爽文小说。 13岁父母离异,在孤儿院长大,经常打鸟果腹、偶尔吃一次方便面泡冷米饭就是天堂。为了生存,李发 顺从小就学会察言观色、捕捉需求。上学期间靠向中国留学生卖老干妈、泡面、香烟赚取生活费,甚至 自学中文,成为留学生的"辅导老师"。 大二那年,他接手一家濒临倒闭的沙矿场,因为解决贪污、帮派、设备老化等重重问题最终让沙矿场起 死回生,赚得第一 ...
未来的新经济
暗涌Waves· 2025-09-17 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new economy driven by AI and blockchain technologies, emphasizing the integration of real-world assets (RWA) into mainstream finance through tokenization, as exemplified by Figure's recent IPO on Nasdaq [2][4][24]. Part 01: What is the Future New Economy - The future new economy is defined as a complex system emerging from the integration of AI and blockchain, which will reshape traditional economic structures and interactions [6][7]. - The new economy formula is expressed as: Future New Economy = (AI + Embodiment + Brain-Machine) x (Blockchain + Cryptocurrency + Tokenization of RWA) x (Existing World + Existing Humanity + Existing Economy) [7]. - The shift from offline to online economic activities has evolved, with predictions that future economies will see a significant portion of value creation occurring on-chain [9][10]. Part 02: Paradigm Shift from AI and Blockchain - Decentralization will be enhanced as AI reduces the costs of entrepreneurship and business practices, allowing for the rise of "small but large" companies that leverage AI for value creation [12][13]. - The trend of disintermediation is expected to continue, with intermediaries needing to adapt their business models to survive in a landscape where trust is increasingly established through blockchain technology [15][17]. - The reliance on physical labor will decline as AI and embodied intelligence take over many labor-intensive tasks, leading to a rise in the importance of human creativity [20][21]. - The concept of a "robot and intelligent agent economy" is introduced, where autonomous systems will operate independently to create value, representing a significant shift in economic dynamics [22]. Part 03: Positive and Negative Outlooks - There is optimism regarding the potential for significant growth in the RWA token market, with estimates suggesting a thousandfold increase in value as traditional assets transition to blockchain [27]. - The article expresses skepticism about the viability of stablecoins issued by many enterprises due to their fragile profit models [28]. - The potential for a creator economy powered by AI and blockchain is highlighted, as these technologies can enhance creators' rights and value sharing [30]. - Concerns are raised about the sustainability of businesses based on information asymmetry, which are likely to face challenges as AI advances [31].
从大厂离职创业做硬件,真值那么多钱?
暗涌Waves· 2025-09-16 05:31
Core Insights - The investment landscape for AI hardware is being reshaped by founders from major tech companies, with nearly 70% of AI hardware entrepreneurs coming from firms like Xiaomi, DJI, and others [2][3] - In the first half of 2025, there were 114 financing events related to embodied intelligence and AI hardware, totaling over 14.5 billion yuan, compared to only 92 events and 9.8 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The trend of former executives from large companies starting their own ventures in AI hardware is intensifying, with 13 former executives choosing to start businesses in 2024, five of whom focused on AI hardware [2] Investment Trends - High-profile financing cases are often linked to the "halo effect" of large companies, with examples like Guangfan Technology and Looki achieving significant funding due to their founders' backgrounds [3] - The valuation premium for founders from large companies has increased by 2-3 times compared to the previous year, with early-stage valuations for similar profiles rising from under 10 million USD to nearly 30 million USD [5][6] - Some founders, like Xiaomi's former VP Ma Ji, are seeing valuations approach 100 million USD, a significant increase from previous years [6] Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly focused on the "people" aspect in early-stage AI hardware investments, as many projects lack fully developed products [8] - The growth curve for hardware companies is steep, requiring a long ramp-up period, which makes early-stage funding crucial for survival and development [10] - The market is characterized by a mix of emotional valuation and future certainty, with many investors willing to pay higher prices based on the potential of the founders rather than traditional financial metrics [8][21] Founder Attributes - Founders from large companies are valued for their ability to scale production and their experience in bringing products to market [11][12] - Successful examples include companies like Havivi, where the founder's experience in mass production led to rapid sales growth [12][13] - The ideal founder profile includes those with 0 to 1 entrepreneurial experience or those who have held high-level positions in large firms, as they understand the complete business cycle [14][15] Future Outlook - The market for embodied AI is projected to reach 23 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 39% [23] - The transition from traditional hardware to embodied intelligence represents a significant evolution in the industry, with hardware serving as a gateway to more advanced AI applications [23] - Despite the current enthusiasm, the AI hardware sector is still in its infancy, with challenges in technology and market acceptance that need to be addressed before reaching maturity [24][26]
星巴克中国出售案进入决赛圈|大并购
暗涌Waves· 2025-09-11 13:22
「 远非大结局。 」 文 | 徐牧心 编辑 | 陈之琰 竞购星巴克中国业务的名单缩短至四家:博裕资本、凯雷集团、EQT和红杉中国(HongShan)。 有消息称,这四家私募股权机构已于上周收到卖方发出的确认函。由高盛主导的此次出售预计将在10月底前确定最终买家。若此次交易就此尘埃落定,持续一 年,吸引十多家机构参与竞标的星巴克中国出售案终于将迎来一个结果。 竞标方对星巴克中国的整体估值约为50亿美元,按照预计2025年4亿至5亿美元的EBITDA计算,对应估值倍数在10倍左右。 从2024年底传出卖身消息后,星巴克的中国业务吸引了包括KKR、高瓴、PAG等国际顶级资本的参与竞购,而市面上对于星巴克最终的买主和价格的传言始终不 断。期间,甚至出现"反向管理层路演"的戏剧性场面。 那么,为何是这四家投资机构闯进"决赛圈"? Part 01 决赛选手们 有过麦当劳中国投资经验的凯雷是四家PE中最意料之内的入选者。 2017年,麦当劳以20.8亿美元的价格出售了80%的麦当劳中国业务,凯雷在其中持有28%的股权。引入凯雷等资方后,麦当劳中国发展迅速,一年就开了1000家 店,为股东带来丰厚的回报。 2023年,凯雷将 ...
和刘靖康对谈6小时,精选了这35句
暗涌Waves· 2025-09-01 00:35
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial performance and market positioning of Yingshi Innovation, highlighting its rapid growth and the leadership style of its young CEO, Liu Jingkang, who has garnered both admiration and criticism for his unconventional approach to management and employee engagement [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Yingshi Innovation reported a revenue of 3.671 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51.17% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was nearly 520 million yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.25% year-on-year [2]. - Research and development expenses doubled compared to the previous year, accounting for 15.3% of total revenue [2]. Company Background and Leadership - Founded in 2015, Yingshi Innovation has rapidly evolved under the leadership of Liu Jingkang, who is noted for his bold and unconventional management style [3][4]. - Liu Jingkang's approach has sparked debate, particularly following a controversial internal celebration where he threw cash to employees, which some viewed as demeaning [3]. - Liu emphasizes the importance of creating rather than merely surviving, stating that the company's mission is to innovate and provide value to customers [7][16]. Product and Industry Insights - Yingshi Innovation aims to differentiate itself in the competitive consumer electronics market by focusing on high-quality products that offer value, rather than competing solely on price [12][13]. - The company believes in the potential of the drone business and has invested significantly in this area, viewing it as a means to build capabilities and foster growth [8][12]. - Liu Jingkang asserts that the market for imaging technology is vast and ever-evolving, with continuous opportunities for innovation [9][18]. Organizational Challenges - Liu acknowledges that managing people and fostering teamwork has been one of the most challenging aspects of his entrepreneurial journey [27][28]. - The company has grown to 3,000 employees, and Liu reflects on the need for better organizational management and team dynamics as the company scales [29][30]. - There is a shift in the company's values, with a focus on prioritizing employee development over customer satisfaction, indicating a strategic change in leadership philosophy [32]. Customer Focus - Yingshi Innovation targets specific consumer needs and aims to solve unique problems rather than competing on generic offerings [24]. - The company conducts market research to understand consumer pain points and preferences, which informs product innovation [23].
复盘一笔耗时300天的VC涉国资S交易
暗涌Waves· 2025-08-26 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The S Fund is seen as a potential solution for revitalizing existing assets, with multiple provinces in China establishing S Funds in recent months. However, challenges exist in the market, particularly regarding the pricing and exit strategies for these funds [2][3]. Summary by Sections S Fund Development - Various provinces, including Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, and Anhui, have established S Funds, reflecting a growing interest in this investment vehicle. The central bank and seven ministries issued guidelines to support new industrialization through venture capital [2]. Challenges in S Fund Transactions - The S Fund market faces significant challenges, including the contradiction between the need to protect state assets and the common requirement for S Funds to purchase at a 20-30% discount. This creates difficulties for market-oriented S Funds to find opportunities [2][3]. Case Study of a Successful S Transaction - A notable transaction involved Atom Venture Capital, which completed its first S transaction in April, where a state-owned LP sold its shares to a market-oriented S Fund, Bohao Capital. The assets involved were early-stage investments considered risky and uncertain [5][14]. Pricing and Valuation Issues - Pricing S Fund shares is complex, as it requires evaluating the underlying assets individually. Many state-owned buyers prefer to buy at the original investment price, limiting the potential for premium pricing [9][10]. The market favors certainty, making early-stage investments less attractive [12][13]. Negotiation and Due Diligence - The negotiation process with Bohao Capital involved extensive due diligence, including site visits and discussions about the potential of the underlying projects. This process took several months and was crucial for building trust between the parties [16][17]. Establishing a Pricing Mechanism - A three-tiered approach was developed to ensure a fair pricing mechanism: a third-party evaluation agency was engaged to provide an initial valuation, followed by negotiations between the buyer and seller, and finally, a public auction process to validate the price [20][21][22]. Successful Completion of the Transaction - The transaction took ten months from conception to completion, with Bohao Capital becoming the new LP for Atom's fourth fund. This success was attributed to mutual trust and collaboration among all parties involved [24][27]. Future Outlook for S Funds - The experience gained from this transaction is expected to facilitate future S Fund transactions, as many government-backed funds will face similar exit challenges in the coming years. The market for S Funds is anticipated to grow significantly [28].
全球化中的“影子世界”
暗涌Waves· 2025-08-19 04:33
Core Viewpoint - The article explores the emergence of "shadow companies" in China's globalization efforts, highlighting their roles in logistics, payment, and marketing as essential infrastructure supporting global trade [2]. Group 1: Logistics - The logistics sector has seen the rise of companies like Zongteng Group, which established overseas warehouses early on, differentiating itself from competitors by focusing on direct shipping and logistics infrastructure [5][6]. - Zongteng's strategic investments in heavy assets, such as cargo planes and automated warehouses, have created significant barriers to entry, allowing it to control costs and improve service efficiency [7][8]. - Other logistics companies, like Wanyitong and Fanding, have adapted their strategies to focus on automation and industry-specific solutions, reflecting a shift towards more integrated logistics services [9][10]. Group 2: Payment - The payment sector has been revolutionized by companies like Airwallex and PingPong, which address the high costs and inefficiencies of traditional cross-border payment systems [16][17]. - These companies have emerged in response to the pain points faced by small and medium enterprises in cross-border transactions, offering lower fees and faster processing times [18]. - The competitive landscape in cross-border payments is evolving, with firms focusing on comprehensive financial ecosystems and compliance capabilities to differentiate themselves [20][21]. Group 3: Marketing - The marketing landscape for overseas expansion is characterized by companies like Taitong Technology, which leverage data-driven strategies to optimize advertising and improve ROI for clients [25][26]. - Taitong's innovative platform integrates various marketing services, allowing clients to manage global campaigns efficiently [27][28]. - The marketing sector is witnessing a shift towards AI-driven solutions, enhancing the effectiveness of campaigns and enabling better targeting of audiences [31]. Group 4: Future Variables in the Shadow World - The "shadow world" of globalization is driven by specific pain points, such as high payment fees and inefficient logistics, leading to the emergence of specialized service providers [34][35]. - The competitive dynamics are changing, with geopolitical factors and technological advancements introducing new variables that will shape the future of these industries [35][36]. - The integration of services across logistics, payment, and marketing is creating a more complex ecosystem, where companies must adapt to survive in a rapidly evolving global landscape [35].
对话心影随形刘斌新:AI产品不要和短视频、游戏抢用户
暗涌Waves· 2025-08-18 01:06
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the journey of Binson, the founder of Xinying Suixing, and his innovative AI product "Doudou Game Partner," which aims to surpass existing products like "Talking Tom" by providing a unique companionship experience for gamers [2][3]. Company Background - Binson, a former senior executive at major tech companies, founded Xinying Suixing in 2023 after a life-changing accident [3]. - The company has raised tens of millions of dollars in Series A+ funding, with notable investors including Jiuhe Venture Capital and Xinying Capital [4]. Product Development - The initial version of Doudou Game Partner was launched despite limitations in model capabilities, but subsequent advancements in multi-modal abilities have allowed for a more interactive experience [3][4]. - The latest version of Doudou AI features real-time game scene recognition and companionship, enhancing user engagement [4][5]. User Engagement - Doudou Game Partner has achieved 8 million registered users and over 2 million monthly active users [3]. - The product is designed to not compete for users' time, recognizing that users are already engaged in various digital activities [3]. Target Audience - The primary users are young individuals aged 18-25, who seek companionship while gaming without social pressures [8][9]. - The emotional need for companionship in gaming is expected to persist across generations, reflecting a shift in lifestyle [9]. Monetization Strategy - Current revenue streams include in-game purchases and subscription models, with future plans to incorporate B2B advertising and e-commerce recommendations [10][11]. - The company aims for a balanced revenue model between consumer and business segments [11]. Future Aspirations - Binson expresses a desire to enhance the AI's ability to understand and analyze complex gaming scenarios, aiming for a more comprehensive interaction with users [12][13]. - The company recognizes the importance of emotional connection and companionship as core values in their product offering [16][19].
倒计时下的墨西哥:新逻辑与潜规则
暗涌Waves· 2025-07-25 06:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and challenges faced by Chinese companies operating in Mexico amid changing trade dynamics and tariffs, particularly in the context of US-China relations and the evolving economic landscape in Mexico [1][3][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics and Economic Impact - The upcoming US-China trade talks in Sweden are seen as a significant indicator of the future of bilateral economic relations [1]. - Mexico, as a key partner for China in Latin America, has experienced a decline in economic growth forecasts, with the IMF revising Mexico's growth from 1.4% to -0.3% for the year [3]. - The "China+1" strategy, which involves using Mexico as a manufacturing hub for exports to the US, is under threat due to increased tariffs and trade tensions [3][10]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Investment Challenges - Many Chinese companies have halted or reduced their investment plans in Mexico due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, particularly after Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on Mexican imports starting in 2025 [10][11]. - Despite the challenges, there is still a strong interest in establishing manufacturing operations in Mexico, as evidenced by the continued inquiries from companies looking to enter the market [11][12]. - The need for Chinese manufacturers to adapt to local conditions and regulations in Mexico is emphasized, as the government aims to attract foreign investment while increasing local production [11][12]. Group 3: E-commerce and Market Potential - Mexico's growing e-commerce market, with a population of 130 million and a GDP per capita of $13,000, presents significant opportunities for Chinese companies [14]. - The internet penetration rate in Mexico is 86.51%, with e-commerce penetration at only 18%, indicating a market ripe for growth [14]. - Chinese platforms like SHEIN and TikTok are actively investing in the Mexican market, capitalizing on the high consumer potential [14][15]. Group 4: Local Adaptation and Management Strategies - Successful Chinese companies in Mexico tend to have a high proportion of local talent, which aids in navigating the complexities of the market [26][27]. - The importance of local leadership and understanding of the cultural and operational landscape in Mexico is highlighted as crucial for success [22][25]. - Companies are encouraged to embrace local practices and respect cultural differences to foster better relationships with local employees and stakeholders [25][26]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment and Compliance - The article discusses the dual nature of compliance in Mexico, where businesses must navigate both legal regulations and informal relationships [30][31]. - The increasing scrutiny on imports and the potential for stricter regulations on Chinese goods are noted as ongoing concerns for companies operating in Mexico [17][18]. - The need for companies to maintain compliance while also being aware of the local political and economic landscape is emphasized as critical for long-term success [32][33].