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倒计时下的墨西哥:新逻辑与潜规则
暗涌Waves· 2025-07-25 06:16
「 无论如何,新的规则总会诞生。 」 文 | 任倩、马文 编辑 | 陈之琰 中美关税90天"大限将至",7月23日,中国商务部正式宣布,中方将与美方在瑞典展开新一轮经贸会谈——这次会谈被视为中美经 贸关系走向的重要风向标。 三个月的"中场休息"为两国的谈判构建了缓冲带,但在被忽略的角落里,夹在两个大国中间的小国们早已被踩得东倒西歪。 之前一众中国企业出海热门目的地里,受伤最重的无疑是东南亚,排在第二位的便是墨西哥。 作为绕道美国市场的经典中转地,墨西哥是中国在拉美的第二大贸易伙伴,中国也连续20年稳居墨西哥第二大贸易伙伴地位。中墨 两国的双边贸易额每年都以两位数稳定增长;尤其是汽车产业,在2024年,墨西哥已成为中国新能源汽车第六大出口目的国,在出 口同比增量国家中排名第三。 本来,在美国 "近岸外包"模式影响下,依托《美墨加协定》的政策倾斜,很多中企通过 "本国零件 + 墨西哥组装 + 美国市场" 的转 口模式前往墨西哥设厂。这样的做法既能满足美国产业链回流诉求,又延续各国贸易往来的活力。 但在特朗普关税大棒的冲击下,墨西哥"China+1"的区位优势正受到前所未有的挑战:国际货币基金已经将今年墨西哥的经济 ...
对话问小白创始人李岩:AI是一种暴力美学,小不可能美
暗涌Waves· 2025-07-07 07:16
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative approach of the company "Yuan Shi Technology" and its product "Wen Xiaobai," which aims to redefine information retrieval and content generation in the AI era, positioning itself as a unique AIGC content platform rather than a traditional chatbot or search engine [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Background and Development - Li Yan, the founder of Yuan Shi Technology, has a strong background in AI, having previously built the AI system at Kuaishou [2]. - Yuan Shi Technology has secured approximately $50 million in funding from notable investors, including Kuaishou's co-founder and venture capital firms [2]. - The product "Wen Xiaobai" combines active Q&A with passive content consumption, resembling a modern version of today's news aggregation platforms [3]. Group 2: Product Positioning and Differentiation - "Wen Xiaobai" is defined as an AIGC content platform that allows users to actively ask questions and passively consume information, contrasting with traditional UGC platforms [8][9]. - The platform emphasizes a user-friendly approach, aiming to lower the psychological barrier for users, which is reflected in its name "Wen Xiaobai" [12]. - The product's content generation relies heavily on AI, with a multi-agent system that automates the creation and quality control of content [16][17]. Group 3: Market Perspective and Opportunities - Li Yan believes that the market for information retrieval is vast and that large companies cannot monopolize it entirely, leaving significant opportunities for startups [5][24]. - The article highlights the shift from traditional information retrieval methods to AI-driven content generation, suggesting that this transformation creates new market dynamics [24][25]. - The company aims to leverage AI's capabilities to address long-tail demands and underrepresented voices in the content landscape [26]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategy - Yuan Shi Technology plans to expand its product offerings to international markets, focusing on creating a closed-loop system of generation, distribution, and consumption [53]. - The company is committed to developing its own models for user interest mapping, which is seen as a core differentiator in its strategy [53]. - Li Yan emphasizes the importance of understanding user needs and adapting to market changes, indicating a flexible approach to product development and commercialization [52][53].
当王宁、王兴兴、张俊杰的投资人坐在一起
暗涌Waves· 2025-07-01 11:35
Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of understanding people in the investment industry, particularly focusing on the characteristics of successful entrepreneurs and the investors who back them [2][3] - It highlights the emergence of a new generation of entrepreneurs, particularly in the AI and technology sectors, and how they are being recognized and supported by investors [3][4] Group 1: Insights on Founders - The conversation features three investors discussing their experiences with notable founders: He Yu with Wang Ning of Pop Mart, Cao Xi with Wang Xingxing of Yushu Technology, and Hu Boyu with Zhang Junjie of Bawang Tea [5][6] - He Yu describes Wang Ning as a blend of artistic sensibility and strong business acumen, emphasizing his meticulous attention to cost management [6][7] - Cao Xi characterizes Wang Xingxing as pure and focused, noting his practical approach to business decisions, such as pursuing humanoid robots due to demand [9][10] - Hu Boyu describes Zhang Junjie as undergoing transformative growth, highlighting his unique background and rapid development in the business [10][11] Group 2: Investment Decision-Making - Investors emphasize the importance of understanding the underlying qualities of founders, such as strategic thinking and self-awareness, rather than superficial traits [13][14] - The challenge lies in recognizing new knowledge and business models that may initially seem unfamiliar, as seen with Pop Mart's innovative approach [14][15] - Investors also discuss the difficulty of conveying their insights about founders to their investment committees, given the complexity of the information received during meetings [14][15] Group 3: Personal Reflections - The investors share their perspectives on each other, highlighting traits such as curiosity, empathy, and a focus on simplicity in decision-making [23][30] - They reflect on how their experiences in the investment industry have shaped their understanding of human nature and the importance of respecting it in business [37][38] - The article concludes with thoughts on the ongoing evolution of personal insights and the significance of human connections in both entrepreneurship and investment [39][42]
融资6000万美元后,帷幄科技叶生晅说商业模型才是一切的原点
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-27 07:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the success of a SaaS company, Wailuo Technology, which has completed a $60 million Series C funding round, emphasizing the importance of profitability over grand visions in the current AI-driven market [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wailuo Technology defines itself as an "enterprise AI for business," focusing on implementing AI solutions in specific verticals [7]. - The company has developed AI products for various sectors, including smart name badges for bank tellers that utilize AI for sales training and customer analysis [8]. Group 2: Hardware vs. Software - The founder believes that starting with hardware was a strategic decision, providing a competitive edge in supply chain capabilities that newer companies cannot match [11]. - The company’s products have not fundamentally changed; rather, AI has enhanced production efficiency [13]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Funding - The recent funding round included significant investments from Southeast Asian firms, highlighting the scarcity of toB or AI companies in the region [15]. - The founder plans to expand into Japan and Western markets, noting that Asian companies are often undervalued compared to their American counterparts [16]. Group 4: Business Model Insights - The founder emphasizes that the essence of business is profitability, arguing that many innovative ideas do not translate into profitable ventures [25]. - The article discusses the challenges of toB businesses, which require deep service and long-term relationships, contrasting them with toC businesses that focus on high traffic [23]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The founder identifies market changes, such as those brought by electric vehicles, as opportunities for growth, suggesting that economic downturns can create unique business prospects [30]. - The article highlights the importance of adaptability in business strategies, particularly in the context of international trade and competition [30].
一年后,当Kimi和MiniMax投资人再坐到一起
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-23 06:01
Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape of AI companies in China has dramatically changed with the emergence of DeepSeek, shifting the focus from direct competition between Kimi and MiniMax to broader discussions about the future of AI and its implications for humanity [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of DeepSeek - DeepSeek has significantly influenced the AI landscape in China, benefiting all AI companies and altering the funding environment [9][11]. - The introduction of DeepSeek has led to a reassessment of the positioning and strategies of other AI companies, including Kimi and MiniMax, prompting them to focus on their unique strengths and innovations [12][10]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Investors emphasize the importance of strong teams over mere technological advancements, highlighting that the best teams will continue to innovate despite market fluctuations [4][5]. - The rapid evolution of the AI industry means that a year in AI can equate to several years in other sectors, necessitating a keen focus on emerging trends and technologies [7][6]. Group 3: Agent Technology - The rise of Agent technology is seen as a significant opportunity, with applications capable of autonomous planning and task execution becoming increasingly viable [14][15]. - Investors are particularly interested in vertical Agents that can accumulate unique knowledge bases, potentially leading to competitive advantages in specific domains [21][20]. Group 4: Embodied Intelligence - There is a recognition of a bubble in the embodied intelligence sector, with many companies overvalued despite the potential for future breakthroughs [28][27]. - The current stage of embodied intelligence is compared to early autonomous driving technology, where significant investment occurred without clear paths to commercialization [30][29]. Group 5: Lessons from Investment - The importance of focusing on people and their growth potential is highlighted as a key lesson from past investment experiences, with a shift towards valuing human factors in technology-driven sectors [35][36]. - The AI investment landscape is characterized by a shorter window for identifying potential winners, with expectations that promising AI companies will emerge by the end of 2026 [37][38]. Group 6: Future Predictions - The future of AI is expected to bring about significant changes, with AI surpassing human capabilities in various fields, leading to a redefinition of industry standards [44][45]. - The relationship between humans and AI is anticipated to evolve, emphasizing the importance of understanding human nature and societal complexities in the AI era [46][47].
张津剑对话王文斌:AI时代,3D打印激活智造生命力
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-19 09:21
Core Viewpoint - 3D printing technology is transitioning from a conceptual dream to practical applications, with significant advancements driven by AI and material science, positioning it as a vital manufacturing method in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of 3D Printing - 3D printing has evolved from being a niche technology to a more integrated part of daily life, with companies like 博理新材料 focusing on material-centric approaches [3][4]. - The industry is experiencing notable changes due to AI, which enhances design capabilities and allows for more personalized manufacturing [12][17]. - The historical context of 3D printing reveals that it has been labeled as a "year of origin" for many years, indicating ongoing expectations for its growth and integration into various sectors [6][8]. Group 2: Future Prospects of 3D Printing - The future of 3D printing is seen as a bridge between virtual and physical worlds, potentially becoming the primary manufacturing method in the AI era [12][17]. - The technology allows for significant reductions in production steps, enabling rapid prototyping and customization that traditional manufacturing methods cannot achieve [14][15]. - As AI continues to evolve, it is expected that 3D printing will facilitate the realization of individual creativity and demand, transforming consumers into creators [16][17]. Group 3: Company Insights and Innovations - 博理新材料, founded in 2017, has focused on developing high-performance 3D printing materials, overcoming challenges that previously limited the technology's application [20][24]. - The company has gained recognition from luxury brands like PRADA and LV, indicating its successful integration into high-end markets [26][30]. - The journey from research to market for 博理 has involved extensive experimentation and problem-solving, leading to a significant increase in production efficiency and product acceptance [27][31].
汪华的最新预言:AI时代和移动互联网的最大区别是实现,而非连接
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-19 09:21
Core Viewpoint - The AI era presents a significant shift from the mobile internet paradigm, emphasizing "implementation" over mere "connection," leading to unprecedented opportunities for entrepreneurs in the AI space [1][5][6]. Group 1: Old vs New Paradigm - The old mobile internet paradigm focused on connecting large user bases and applications, while the new AI paradigm emphasizes depth and high-value implementation [4][6]. - Major tech companies are still operating under the old paradigm, which creates space for new entrants to focus on specific, high-value applications that these giants cannot fully address [5][6]. Group 2: Model Dividend - The current model dividend represents the largest opportunity in history, driven by rapid advancements in AI models since late last year [10][11]. - Companies leveraging new model capabilities in niche markets have seen significant success, with some achieving valuations exceeding $5 billion [12][15]. - The speed of achieving revenue milestones in AI has accelerated, with companies reaching $1 million in annual revenue much faster than in previous tech waves [7][11]. Group 3: Opportunities in Agent and Multimodal - The next major opportunities lie in the development of Agent capabilities and multimodal applications, which are expected to see rapid advancements in the coming year [30][31]. - The ability of models to perform complex tasks and integrate various tools is still in its early stages, indicating a significant growth potential [33][34]. - The B2B sector remains underexplored for multimodal applications, presenting a substantial opportunity for innovation [35][36]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Entrepreneurs should focus on high-value, specific problems rather than large-scale user acquisition, as the model capabilities allow for significant impact with smaller user bases [18][19]. - The global market presents vast opportunities, and companies should not limit themselves to domestic markets but rather seek to address pain points across various industries worldwide [21][22]. - Successful companies are those that can identify and solve specific industry challenges using advanced AI models, leading to substantial competitive advantages [23][24].
泡泡玛特上市前,我们对王宁的一次未公开访谈
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-17 07:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable growth and investment journey of Pop Mart, highlighting how it transformed from a lesser-known entity to a market leader with a peak market value exceeding HKD 370 billion, illustrating the missed opportunities for many investors [1][17]. Group 1: Investment Journey - Pop Mart's IPO was highly anticipated, with its market value reaching HKD 1 trillion shortly after listing, marking a fivefold increase from its previous valuation of USD 2.5 billion [22]. - The company experienced significant growth, with total revenue of CNY 1.683 billion in 2019, reflecting over 200% growth in the preceding three years [17][18]. - Early investors faced challenges in recognizing the potential of Pop Mart, with many missing out on investment opportunities due to the company's unconventional business model and market positioning [21][25]. Group 2: Key Investors and Their Perspectives - Key investors like He Yu from Black Ant Capital and Tu Zheng from Fengqiao Capital played crucial roles in Pop Mart's funding, with Tu expressing regret over exiting too early [4][33]. - Wang Ning, the founder, emphasized the importance of understanding and aligning with investors, comparing the selection process to dating, where mutual recognition is essential [12]. - The article highlights the contrasting experiences of early investors who initially viewed Pop Mart as a low-potential venture but later recognized its value as it evolved into a cultural platform [19][29]. Group 3: Market Position and Cultural Impact - Pop Mart's transformation into a cultural platform was marked by successful events like the International Trend Toy Exhibition, which showcased its growth and market potential [27][28]. - The introduction of popular IPs like Molly significantly contributed to Pop Mart's revenue, with Molly accounting for a substantial portion of the company's earnings [29]. - The company has established a unique business model that integrates IP incubation, design, production, and sales, positioning itself as a leader in the collectible toy market [39].
72小时全纪实:人类与AI的第一次亲密接触
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-12 04:32
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "72-hour AI Survival Challenge" organized by Wuyuan Capital, drawing parallels to a similar event from 1999 that tested internet survival skills, highlighting the evolution of technology and its impact on human interaction and creativity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Challenge Overview - The challenge aimed to explore whether participants could survive solely using AI tools in a controlled environment, reflecting on the potential of AI in everyday life and creativity [3][4]. - Participants included a diverse group of individuals, such as a PhD student from an AI university and a product manager from a major tech company [6][9]. Group 2: Challenge Rules and Setup - The challenge took place in a rented house with minimal resources, including a computer with pre-installed AI tools and a limited budget of 100 RMB [8]. - Participants were restricted from using traditional internet products, forcing them to rely solely on AI for communication and task completion [10]. Group 3: Participant Experiences - Participants faced significant challenges due to the lack of smartphones and traditional internet access, which complicated tasks like ordering food [10][11]. - Despite initial setbacks, some participants successfully utilized AI to complete tasks, such as ordering food through alternative methods [16][36]. Group 4: Creative Projects - Each participant had a main project, with some aiming to create AI-generated content, such as films or virtual assistants, while others sought to explore AI's potential in practical applications [13][22]. - The challenge led to unexpected collaborations and the development of new ideas, such as a virtual live streaming platform and a real-time salary tracker [27][31]. Group 5: Reflections on AI - Participants expressed mixed feelings about AI, with some experiencing frustration while others found inspiration and new creative avenues [18][48]. - The challenge highlighted the importance of human connection and collaboration in the face of technological advancements, suggesting that AI could enhance rather than replace human experiences [56][57].
线性郑灿:AI应用正处“Pre-iPhone6”时代
暗涌Waves· 2025-06-11 03:20
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving landscape of AI startups, emphasizing the shift from model competition to application-focused innovation, with a particular interest in specific vertical solutions rather than generic models [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Linear Capital has increased its investment amounts this year, with early-stage project funding rising from $1.5-2 million to $3-5 million, reflecting the maturation of startup teams and the shift of existing companies towards AI [3][4]. - The focus is on projects that address specific vertical problems, as these are easier to define and commercialize compared to general-purpose products [2][3]. Group 2: Areas of Interest - Three key areas of interest for investment include: 1. Coding tools, which still have significant limitations and opportunities for new companies [3]. 2. Voice model projects, which have advanced to produce fully human-like voices, enhancing user interaction [3]. 3. AI applications in the aging economy, addressing the challenges posed by an increasing elderly population [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current AI application landscape is likened to a "Pre-iPhone 6" era, indicating that while many opportunities exist, no dominant players have emerged yet [4]. - AI is viewed as a productivity enhancer rather than a new channel, suggesting that existing processes can be reimagined using AI [4]. Group 4: Community and Structural Opportunities - There is a growing interest in community-driven models, which can enhance tool engagement and create larger structural opportunities beyond just technology [5]. - The distinction between AI applications and embodied intelligence in terms of funding and revenue generation is highlighted, with AI applications expected to demonstrate quick commercialization [5][6]. Group 5: Entrepreneurial Considerations - Early-stage investors are focused on the financial requirements for startups to reach key milestones, considering the potential for error and the associated costs [6]. - There is a preference for entrepreneurs to leverage advancements in models rather than solely focusing on generating models themselves, emphasizing the importance of finding applicable scenarios [6].