Goldman Sachs(US:GS) 美股研究社·2025-09-12 11:00Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Tony Pasquariello emphasizes that the current AI-driven U.S. stock market remains a bull market, but investors should avoid blindly chasing gains at these high levels. The market is expected to consolidate in the short term due to record high valuations and a decrease in short-term capital inflows [5]. Macroeconomic and Corporate Earnings - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. GDP growth will slow to 1.3% by 2025, significantly lower than recent levels, particularly as the labor market is in a "stalling state." However, growth is expected to rebound to 1.8% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 [6]. - The report highlights that a loose financial environment, strong fiscal support, deregulation, and a surge in capital expenditure in the AI sector provide significant upside potential for economic growth [6]. - Despite uncertainties like tariffs, Goldman Sachs forecasts a steady 7% growth in S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) for the next two years, reaching $262 and $280 respectively [6]. - The strong performance of corporate earnings contrasts sharply with the pessimistic macro narrative, with S&P 493 (excluding the seven tech giants) showing a 7% year-on-year earnings growth in the first half of 2025, while the tech giants' earnings surged by 28% [6]. Valuation and Capital Flows - The report warns of short-term alerts regarding U.S. stocks based on valuation and capital flows. The S&P 500 is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22, which is in the 96th percentile since 1980, indicating a "harsh" valuation [8]. - High valuations are seen more as a "roadmap" for future returns rather than a signal to short the market, as sustained high valuations have not prevented significant market gains in the past three years [8]. - The technical buying momentum that supported the market over the summer is weakening, with systematic trading funds reaching "saturated" positions and stock buybacks expected to be limited in the coming months [8]. Key Variables: Federal Reserve, AI, and the Law of Large Numbers - The report identifies three significant variables that could impact the market: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the influence of AI, and challenges posed by the law of large numbers [9]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates about five interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from now until mid-2026, which historically has been favorable for the S&P 500, suggesting that investors should not go against the Fed, especially without an economic recession [11]. - The ongoing debate about AI's impact on the market continues, with some viewing it as a new phase while others see it as a significant capital misallocation since the tech bubble [11]. - The report raises concerns about whether the most explosive growth days for major tech stocks are over, citing Nvidia's stock performance as an example of the challenges in maintaining high growth rates at large scales [12].