Caitong Securities(SH:601108) 陈兴宏观研究·2025-09-13 13:45Global Asset Price Performance - Global stock markets experienced a broad rally, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices both rising by 1.6%, and the Nasdaq index increasing by 2% this week [2][3] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline by 4 basis points [2] - Commodity prices saw a decrease in crude oil, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices falling by 1.7% and 0.9% respectively, while London gold prices rose by 1.6% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Federal Reserve: A U.S. District Court judge temporarily blocked Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to potentially attend the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - European Central Bank: The ECB maintained its deposit rate at 2%, marking the second consecutive pause in rate cuts, with little change in inflation outlook [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - Inflation in the U.S. showed moderate growth, with the CPI year-on-year increase rising to 2.9%. Core CPI remained stable, but a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points was noted [9] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, reaching the highest level in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market [9] - The NFIB small business confidence index reached 100.8, the highest since January 2025, driven by a significant increase in new orders [10] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - France: The government faced a crisis as Prime Minister Borne resigned after losing parliamentary confidence, with the new Prime Minister likely to struggle for majority support [21] - Germany: Industrial production showed a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, indicating potential for recovery despite ongoing challenges [21]