晶圆代工，分化加剧！

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC dominating the market and other players struggling to keep pace. TSMC's revenue and market share have surged, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor cycle, while competitors face various challenges [1][4][5]. Group 1: TSMC's Dominance - TSMC's Q2 revenue reached $30.239 billion, capturing 70.2% of the global market share, a record high [2][4]. - TSMC's unique "dual moat" strategy, focusing on advanced processes (3nm, 5nm) and advanced packaging (CoWoS, SoIC), has positioned it as a critical player in the AI and HPC markets [4][11]. - AI demand contributes approximately one-third of TSMC's revenue, underscoring its ability to generate excess profits [4][9]. Group 2: Competitors' Struggles - Samsung Foundry's revenue for H1 was under $6.2 billion, with a market share around 7%, highlighting a widening gap with TSMC [5][12]. - SMIC's H1 revenue was $4.46 billion, but its market share declined from 6.0% to 5.1%, indicating challenges in profitability despite high utilization [5][12]. - Other foundries like UMC and GlobalFoundries are maintaining stable operations through specialized processes, with market shares around 3-4% [6][7]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing three major trends: AI-driven demand, structural recovery in mature processes, and geopolitical reshaping of global supply chains [8][13]. - Advanced packaging has become a critical bottleneck in AI chip production, with TSMC being the only supplier capable of large-scale, high-yield CoWoS [15][16]. - The recovery in mature processes is evident, with companies like UMC and VIS showing improved margins as inventory clearances occur [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 will be pivotal, with TSMC's packaging expansion, Samsung's 2nm gamble, and the profitability of Chinese foundries being key factors [14][15]. - TSMC plans to increase CoWoS capacity, which is currently constrained, to meet the surging demand from clients like NVIDIA and AMD [16][17]. - The competitive landscape is shifting from merely producing smaller transistors to efficiently packaging higher computing power, indicating a new era of competition in the semiconductor industry [18].