美联储降息，美股不涨反跌！当下还能配置美股吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the characteristics of the U.S. stock market, emphasizing its long-term investment potential despite short-term fluctuations [3][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described this rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the Fed is not entering a prolonged rate-cutting cycle, which the market interpreted as a hawkish stance [6]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Characteristics - The U.S. stock market is characterized by high efficiency and low investment difficulty, meaning that information is quickly reflected in stock prices due to the active trading environment [8]. - The market is dominated by institutional investors who possess advanced research capabilities and technology, allowing for rapid information processing and trading [10]. - The diverse participant structure in the U.S. market, including hedge funds, mutual funds, and pension funds, leads to comprehensive information analysis and price discovery [11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Ordinary investors face challenges in outperforming indices due to the market's efficiency, making long-term holding of low-cost index funds a more rational strategy [12][13]. - The strong fundamentals of U.S. companies, coupled with significant stock buybacks, have driven the long-term bull market, with the S&P 500's price increase primarily attributed to earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [14][16]. - Major U.S. companies have demonstrated robust profitability and have engaged in substantial stock repurchase programs, enhancing earnings per share and supporting stock price appreciation [18][19]. Group 4: Complementarity with A-shares - The article highlights the low correlation between U.S. and A-share markets, suggesting that holding both can mitigate overall portfolio volatility during market downturns [22][26]. - Historical data indicates that during A-share bear markets, U.S. stocks have either remained stable or declined less, providing a buffer for investors [28]. - A balanced allocation between U.S. and A-shares allows investors to capture opportunities in both markets while managing risk effectively [32][34].