马斯克的Optimus机器人稳了吗

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Optimus robot aims to achieve advanced capabilities in walking and performing complex tasks, but faces significant challenges in motion control, task generalization, and reliability [3][10][12] Group 1: Current Status of Optimus - As of January 2024, Optimus demonstrated limited capabilities, such as folding clothes and interacting with crowds via remote control, which has drawn criticism from the industry [3][10] - Compared to domestic competitors, Tesla's Optimus does not show significant advantages in walking or grasping abilities [3][10] - Tesla's strength lies in its comprehensive in-house development and vertical integration, with all 28 joints of Optimus designed as integrated electric drive modules [3][5] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Tesla utilizes its own 4680 cylindrical battery cells and self-developed Battery Management System (BMS), while many startups rely on third-party batteries [5][10] - The third generation of Optimus has seen exponential growth in generalization capabilities, shifting from motion capture and remote control data collection to using human videos for training [7][10] Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Current 2D video data is insufficient for training embodied models, which require more complex multimodal data for better generalization and task success rates [10][12] - The existing dexterous hands struggle with complex physical scenarios, indicating a need for higher quality and more comprehensive data [10][12] Group 4: Market and Future Outlook - Critics argue that Tesla's ambitious AI and robotics plans lack concrete support, with some viewing them as a means to maintain stock prices amid declining sales [12][19] - Tesla's future growth targets are ambitious, requiring a compound annual growth rate of 26% to reach a market value of $7.5 trillion, which includes delivering 1 million robots and 1 million robotaxis [18][19] - Recent stock purchases by Elon Musk have positively impacted Tesla's stock price, reflecting investor confidence in his leadership and vision for the company [19][20]