Yunnan Aluminium (SZ:000807) 光大证券研究·2025-09-21 23:04Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, driven by increased production and favorable pricing dynamics in the aluminum market [4][5]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 29.078 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.98% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.768 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.88% - The company proposed a cash dividend of 3.20 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for approximately 40.10% of the net profit for the first half of 2025, resulting in a current dividend yield of 3.78% based on market capitalization as of September 19, 2025 [4]. Production and Pricing Dynamics - The growth in the company's performance is primarily attributed to an increase in both the volume and price of its products, with aluminum production reaching 1.6132 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.59% - The average price of aluminum (A00) in the first half of 2025 was 20,317.4 yuan per ton, up by 2.6% year-on-year - The decline in alumina prices, which fell to 3,170 yuan per ton (down 44.7% from the beginning of the year), has also positively impacted the company's profitability [5]. Industry Demand and Trends - The demand for aluminum is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a total domestic aluminum consumption of 54.3549 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.46% - Excluding export products, domestic aluminum consumption is anticipated to grow by 3.06% year-on-year, driven by sectors such as new energy vehicles, power transmission lines, and air conditioning [6]. Resource Expansion and Project Development - The company is actively expanding its resource base, successfully acquiring exploration rights for the Zhaotong aluminum ore and advancing exploration and mining rights in other regions - New projects, such as the 50,000-ton aluminum resource comprehensive utilization project and the 30,000-ton aluminum alloy casting production line, have been successfully launched [7]. Carbon Market Integration - The aluminum smelting industry is on the verge of being integrated into the national carbon market, as indicated by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment's recent solicitation for public opinion on greenhouse gas emission accounting and reporting guidelines - The carbon emissions from aluminum production using thermal power are significantly higher than those using hydropower, which may lead to increased costs for thermal power-based aluminum production and encourage energy-saving measures within the industry [9].