Tesla(US:TSLA) 美股研究社·2025-09-19 10:23Core Viewpoint - Tesla has not launched a new vehicle in five years, indicating a strategic shift towards a comprehensive ecosystem that includes AI, energy, and robotics rather than just selling cars [4][28]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - Tesla's market share is declining, with its U.S. electric vehicle market share dropping to 38% in August 2025, the lowest since 2017, and only 5.1% in China [8][14]. - The company is strategically avoiding the low-end market to maintain its brand identity and profit margins, as entering price wars would compromise its financial health and innovation capabilities [15][18][21]. - Tesla's current gross margin is 17.2%, and entering a price war could further compress this margin, affecting its R&D investments [18][24]. Group 2: Future Business Model - Tesla aims to transform its vehicles into "robotic assets" that generate continuous cash flow through services like autonomous ride-hailing (Robotaxi) rather than relying solely on vehicle sales [30][44]. - The potential revenue from deploying 1 million Robotaxis could exceed $40 billion annually, with Wall Street predicting a trillion-dollar market for autonomous taxis by 2040 [31][32]. - The company is also focusing on the development of the Optimus humanoid robot, which could significantly contribute to its future value, with expectations that 80% of Tesla's value may come from this segment [34][37]. Group 3: Energy Business Growth - Tesla's energy business is projected to surpass $10 billion in revenue by 2024, with a significant increase in storage deployment [38][41]. - The gross margin for the energy sector has improved to 24.4%, higher than the automotive business, indicating a strong profit potential [41]. - Tesla's vertical integration in the energy sector, including the production of its own transformers, enhances its growth prospects and reduces reliance on external suppliers [43].