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市值1.2万亿的“组装厂”,成了A股高估之最
FIIFII(SH:601138) 虎嗅APP·2025-09-21 23:54

Core Viewpoint - Industrial Fulian is considered one of the most overvalued stocks in A-shares, with a market capitalization of 1.23 trillion yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 51 times, despite its low asset quality and profit margins [5][9][46]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Position - As of September 12, 2025, Industrial Fulian's stock price reached 61.9 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 195.2% from early July to mid-September 2025, driven by the demand for AI computing infrastructure [5][6]. - The valuation of Industrial Fulian is deemed excessive, especially when compared to industry leaders like Nvidia, as the company primarily benefits from the AI boom without substantial profit margins [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth - In 2024, Industrial Fulian reported revenue of 609.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, and a net profit of 23.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% [12]. - For Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 200.35 billion yuan, a 35.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 51.6% growth [14]. - The revenue growth from its main business segments, communication and cloud service equipment, has shown limited growth potential, with communication equipment revenue only increasing by 11.1% from 2018 to 2024 [18][22]. Group 3: Asset Quality and Profitability - Industrial Fulian's fixed assets are significantly lower than competitors, with a book value of only 22.63 billion yuan, compared to BYD's 280.8 billion yuan [8][43]. - The company's gross profit margins are low, with cloud service equipment yielding only a 5% margin compared to Nvidia's 50% [27]. - The company has a high proportion of low-efficiency overseas assets, which accounted for 66.6% of total assets by mid-2025, raising concerns about potential impairment losses [39][42]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The AI computing investment landscape faces challenges such as diminishing returns, energy constraints, and data scarcity, which could impact Industrial Fulian's growth prospects [28][30]. - The company's net profit margin has remained low, averaging 4.2% from 2018 to 2024, with R&D investment significantly lagging behind industry peers [32].