花旗：2026年—智能眼镜的“普及转折点”？

Core Viewpoint - Citi believes that Meta's long-term layout in the smart glasses sector is entering a critical harvest period, predicting that smart glasses may become mainstream within the next 12-24 months and could reach a key inflection point by 2026 [1][2]. Market Potential and Growth - The report indicates that Meta's smart glasses are moving towards a critical commercialization phase driven by AI features, with expectations for a mainstream market breakthrough in 2026 [2]. - Meta's Ray-Ban smart glasses saw a threefold increase in sales in the first half of 2025, with plans to achieve an annual production capacity of 10 million units by the end of 2026 [1][2]. - The potential adoption curve for smart glasses is compared to the explosive growth of smartwatches and wireless earbuds, suggesting a similar trajectory in the coming years [2][7]. Consumer Sentiment and Demand - A consumer survey revealed that approximately 12% of respondents plan to purchase Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, while only about 5% currently own the product [9]. - Analysts predict that by 2030, smart glasses could contribute around €3.7 billion to EssilorLuxottica's revenue, accounting for about 10% of total sales, with expected revenue of less than €300 million in 2024 [9]. Development Phases of Smart Glasses - The adoption of smart glasses is expected to occur in three core phases: 1. "Hands-free moments" where voice commands are used for photography and video [5]. 2. "AI-powered experiences," which is the core of making glasses "smart" [5]. 3. "Digital overlay," which is just beginning, with the potential for AI interaction experiences [5]. Challenges and Competitive Landscape - Key hardware challenges affecting widespread adoption include appearance, battery life, and weight, with 50 grams being the maximum tolerable weight for users [10]. - The second-generation Ray-Ban Meta glasses have doubled battery life to approximately 6-8 hours, but a full AR experience may require all-day battery life [10]. - Meta is considered to be years ahead of competitors in defining the smart glasses category, although competition is intensifying from companies like Google, Snap, and Apple [11][12][13][14].