【广发宏观陈礼清】高成长叙事的宏观条件与择时落地

Core Viewpoint - By the third quarter of 2025, Chinese technology assets are leading among major asset classes, reflecting the trend of China's economic upgrade and the realization of the "engineer dividend" advantage [1][9][10]. Dimension Summaries Dimension 1: Macro Risk Clearance - High-growth narratives require a risk clearance opportunity where capital is willing to invest. The study tested six potential variables, revealing that timing signals based on the MOVE index and monthly nominal GDP down volatility yield significant excess returns. The strategies based on these signals since 2006 have shown cumulative returns of 1176.91% and 1227.15%, respectively [2][13][16]. Dimension 2: Nominal Growth Rate Central Level - If the nominal growth rate is below the historical average, asset returns are constrained. A strategy of increasing allocation to technology assets when nominal GDP is low has yielded cumulative returns of 1184.04% since 2006. The best macro scenario for high-growth sectors is when nominal growth is at a low level with marginal improvement [3][17][19]. Dimension 3: High-Yield Asset Scarcity - The essence of asset scarcity is not a lack of assets but a mismatch between changing asset returns and rigid capital return expectations. A strategy based on high-yield asset scarcity has yielded cumulative returns of 258.06% since 2014, indicating that negative carry conditions favor technology assets [4][21][23]. Dimension 4: Internal and External Liquidity Conditions - The analysis considers both domestic and international liquidity conditions. A strategy based on low SHIBOR rates and a narrowing yield spread has shown cumulative returns of 433.01% since 2012, indicating favorable conditions for technology stocks [5][25][27]. Dimension 5: Existence of Industry Narratives - The study quantifies the impact of long-term narratives on short-term pricing by examining the difference between price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios. A strategy based on the presence of industry narratives has yielded cumulative returns of 518.05% since 2009, suggesting that new industry information can catalyze long-term narratives [6][30][32]. Dimension 6: High-Growth Odds Perspective - The analysis focuses on market breadth and concentration within technology stocks. A strategy based on market width has yielded cumulative returns of 264.87% since 2013, indicating that a healthy market breadth is essential for sustaining high-growth narratives [7][34][35]. Composite Summary - A "5+1" timing strategy has been constructed, integrating five winning dimensions and one odds dimension. The composite signal has shown cumulative returns of 1147.47% since 2006, indicating a robust framework for understanding high-growth asset pricing [8][36][38].