全球第二大铜矿“重大事故”停产，华尔街：黑天鹅！“交易员们先买入，然后再问问题”

Core Viewpoint - A significant mining accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has led to a supply disruption, raising concerns about a long-term copper shortage and causing a sharp increase in copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 24, Freeport-McMoRan announced that its supply contracts entered a state of "force majeure" due to a large landslide on September 8, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2]. - The Grasberg mine is the second-largest copper mine globally and also the largest gold mine, contributing approximately 3.2% of global copper supply and nearly 30% of Freeport's copper production [9]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) surged nearly 4%, reaching $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell in pre-market trading [4]. - Competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise, indicating a market reaction driven by supply fears [4]. Group 3: Supply Impact - Goldman Sachs labeled the Grasberg shutdown as a "black swan event," predicting a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months, with potential further losses of 1 to 2 million tons [7]. - The supply disruption is expected to have a disproportionate impact on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) due to existing overstock issues in the U.S. market [11]. Group 4: Long-term Production Outlook - Freeport has lowered its third-quarter copper and gold sales guidance by 4% and 6%, respectively, and anticipates a 35% drop in copper and gold production for 2026 compared to previous estimates [14]. - Full production recovery at Grasberg may not occur until 2027, raising concerns for industries reliant on copper, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [14][15].