Apple(US:AAPL) Counterpoint Research·2025-09-26 01:02Core Viewpoint - The global smartphone average selling price (ASP) is projected to increase from $370 in 2025 to $412 in 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% driven by high-end trends and the adoption of 5G technology [4][6][10]. Market Trends - The global smartphone market is expected to see a 2.5% year-on-year growth in shipments in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of 1.9% [6]. - The ASP is anticipated to rise by 3.5% to $370 in 2025, influenced by price increases in North America and economic recovery in India and other Asia-Pacific regions [6][10]. - Smartphone revenue is projected to grow nearly 6% year-on-year in 2025, with a long-term CAGR of 5% from 2025 to 2029, reaching $564 billion by 2029 [10]. Regional Insights - In North America, the ASP is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, while in China, it is projected to increase by 3.6%, primarily driven by high-end models [10][11]. - India’s ASP is expected to remain below $250 in 2025 but will gradually rise to $287 by 2029 due to the high-end trend [12]. Brand Performance - Apple is projected to maintain its position as a leader in high-end smartphone ASP, with an expected increase from $919 in 2025 to nearly $1000 by 2029 [10][12]. - Samsung's ASP is expected to remain stable, with flagship models impacting overall ASP but supported by foldable phones and GenAI integration [14]. - Huawei is strengthening its ASP growth in China, driven by its Mate and Pura series, as well as foldable phones [14]. Technology Impact - The introduction of GenAI smartphones is expected to increase the bill of materials (BoM) cost by $40-60 per device, initially raising prices but transitioning to value-driven ASP growth as AI features become more integrated [14][15]. - Foldable smartphones, although currently representing less than 2% of global shipments, are anticipated to elevate consumer perceptions of high-end products [15]. Conclusion - The global smartphone ASP outlook is optimistic, with stabilizing supply chains and diminishing tariff impacts, alongside the proliferation of high-end smartphones, GenAI, and foldable innovations driving gradual ASP increases [15].