GREE(SZ:000651) 光大证券研究·2025-09-25 23:06Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated confidence in its future development by increasing its stake in the company, indicating a positive outlook on its value and growth potential [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected dividend yield for 2025 exceeds 7%, with a projected profit of 33 billion and a cash dividend rate of 52%, resulting in a current expected yield of 7.7% [5] - Historical data shows that the company has had a dividend yield above 7% for approximately 31% of the time from 2013 to 2024, which typically corresponds to valuation bottoms [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Online price competition has eased in Q3 2025, allowing the company to regain market share, with significant price increases from various brands following the reduction of national subsidies [6] - The proportion of air conditioners sold online for under 2100 yuan has decreased from 57% in June to 44% in August, benefiting the company as it positions itself in the mid-to-high-end market [6] - The company's online retail volume grew by 21% year-on-year in August, compared to a 2% growth in the industry, and a 23% year-on-year increase in online retail volume from January to August [6] Group 3: International Expansion - The company held a product launch event in Thailand, marking its deepening presence in Southeast Asia, where its export share has increased from 30% to 80% over ten years [7] - In Indonesia, the company has emerged as a competitor against Japanese brands in a market with an annual air conditioner sales volume of nearly 4 million units [7] - In Thailand, the company transitioned to a localized operation model to enhance market responsiveness, while in Singapore, it has launched its brand to meet high energy efficiency standards [7]